Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s break higher was weak confirmation to Thursday’s weak breakout attempt. But extending higher would have been credible. Or simply dipping to test recent “lower prior highs.” All of which is now much higher after Tuesday morning’s plunge back to recent lows. There was no bullish reason to fill the gap back down to 1.0435 that had been filled already. The gap fill held, so rallying sharply is the only bullish scenario now. Delaying a recovery is not strength.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday morning’s surge attacked the 1167.00 target already to within $1. There is no requirement to extend any higher, and back under 1154.50 would signal momentum already reversing down.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Bouncing sharply at Tuesday’s open helped to leverage Friday’s late bounce. The reaction down from testing 16.20 has avoided gaining traction. Closing above 16.20 signals a new rally leg underway, which already extended to a fresh high Tuesday.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down sharply to 149-04 was recovered to fill the gap back up to Friday’s test of 150-24, still targeting 151-12 if sellers are gaining traction for their efforts.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Rallying sharply overnight neutralized all “unfinished business above,” stopping 6 cents short of the three-week old 56.24 Sunday night high. Not immediately, but soon, price tumbled sharply to 53.18 where the price had based previously. There’s no bullish reason to revisit it after already probing higher, but back above 54.20 would trigger a retest of Tuesday’s highs.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The reaction down from probing above 3.75 had retraced Thursday, and broken lower Friday. Its minimum 3.62.objective was met overnight, and then broken on the way to recent pullback lows around 3.30. That’s also a prior low, and any lower would target 3.18.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Whatever triggered Thursday night’s flash-surge vs. the Dollar, it was exacerbated by having bottomed and triggered a buy signal Wednesday and Thursday. A second consecutive higher close Friday is dubious confirmation. It would have been highly suspicious for post-open action only to trend down, but post-open action first probed higher — short of the 1.0635 overnight high — before dipping back under the open. Regardless, a deeper corrective dip ack to 1.0525-1.0535 is possible before resuming the breakout.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Relatively narrow ranging Friday morning didn’t exploit Thursday’s breakout surge. Dipping deeper through the session only attacked 1149.40 whose break — confirmed under 1142.50 — would reinstate 1118.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s test of the 16.20 buy signal was ongoing into and out of the close and Friday’s open. It was rejected back down under the 16.00 “lower prior highs” to 15.88. A fresh low isn’t required, but would still be possible, and would still likely recover.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Bouncing Friday above Thursday’s highs — which had been retraced to the 149-24 buy signal — attacked the 151-12 target to 150-24. The target remains in-play so long as 149-24 holds as support. Back under 149-18 would reverse the trend back down, sharply.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
More shallow weakness Friday morning still didn’t reverse momentum down, but it did start to undermine the recovery’s pace. Resuming the rally should have been obvious before the weekend, so surging out of the weekend may be the only near-term remaining bullish scenario.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s dip back down to 3.75 was in-line with Wednesday’s break above it having been exacerbated by the rollover. But breaking under 3.75 confirms. And closing under the break’s 3.62 would reverse the trend down.