Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s drop neutralized the outstanding attraction below, and held its test to avoid putting lower targets into play. Already gapping up Thursday risks leaving another gap outstanding below, but that didn’t prevent trending back up to attack the 1.0540 prior highs intraday. A second consecutive higher close Friday would confirm a bottom is in.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday night’s test of the 1147.00-1149.00 bounce limit was retested overnight, gapping up Thursday. The interim consolidation formed “lower prior highs” at 1142.50, and breaking lower would reinstate the attraction down to 1118.00. Meanwhile, fresh highs have extended to test 1160.50, and can extend to 1167.00 unless a reaction down were to close under 1147.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight strength attacked the 16.20 buy signal which was then probed intraday, suggesting that no “unfinished business below” remains outstanding.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s open immediately exceeded Wednesday’s bounce to the 149-24 buy signal. Eventually probing above it intraday to 150-12 was reversed back down to 149-24, undermining a close above it. Nevertheless, a second consecutive higher close would target 151-12.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s post-close reaction to API and Thursday morning’s reaction to EIA maintained enough pressure to inhibit the rally from resuming, but not enough to reverse the trend down. Reversing down is unlikely before at leas retesting the three-week old Sunday night gap up.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Was Wednesday’s surge above 3.75 to 3.90 the result of rolling the front-month from Jan to Feb? Gapping down Thursday is consistent with that possibility, as was trending back down to 3.75. But closing under 3.62 is the deciding factor, and its break should then trend down sharply.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Overnight weakness fulfilled the requirement to fill the gap back down to 1.0435. Not closing above it Wednesday would be likely also to test the gap open at 1.0405 before a recovery would be credible. There is otherwise no “unfinished business below.”

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Shallower overnight strength than the previous night was restrained by Wednesday’s open to spend the day fluctuating narrowly around unchanged, yet to test the range’s lower-end at 1118.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday fluctuated narrowly around unchanged instead of exploiting Tuesday’s gap up, suggesting the gap back down to Friday’s close will be filled before a credible rally leg can begin.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s dip recovered Wednesday from only attacking 148-04 whose break would have targeted a new low close, rallying up to 149-02 that has defined the past week’s resistance.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Firming slightly overnight was retraced before Wednesday’s open, but intraday firming kept price within the orbit of recent highs that still require being retested regardless of the next leg’s direction.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Dipping slightly overnight and at Wednesday’s open nevertheless recovered 3.75 and extended sharply higher to test at least 3.82. Unless rejected immediately Thursday for being only the mechanical product of contracts rolling forward, a more substantial upleg is now underway — leaving unfinished business below.