Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Repeated failed efforts to trend under 1.1333 finally faced the consequence of breaking higher, and extending intraday to test the 1.1375 buy signal that was avoided last week. A second consecutive higher close Wednesday would confirm the trend had reversed up.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
[Rolling coverage forward to Apr which trades at a 40-cent premium to Feb]… Rallying out of the weekend had already fulfilled the 3-week old 1328.30 gap up and also its likely 1333.00 objective before Tuesday’s open. The morning extended higher to 1345.00, qualifying as a breakout that could be confirmed by a second consecutive higher close Wednesday. Otherwise, a pullback to 1328.50-1333.00 would maintain upside momentum.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Already probing above Friday’s 15.70 buy signal’s test overnight, Tuesday’s open extended through 15.82 resistance to confirm the 3-week old gap up at 16.16 is in-play, already attacking 16.00 intraday.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Still testing 146-16 through Friday’s close gave no hint how it would resolve through Sunday night or Monday, not until Tuesday’s next regular open when price surged back to prior highs at 147-05. The massive Ascending Triangle pattern has no bullish excuse not to resolve up much sooner rather than later. Closing back under 146-00 would instead resolve down substantially.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh highs coming out of the holiday weekend may be resolving the massive inverted Head & Shoulders pattern, subject to a second consecutive higher close on Wednesday for confirmation. Which would greet this week’s one-day delayed EIA report on Thursday from a position of strength.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Flat-to-higher ranging ahead of Tuesday’s open still needs to close above 2.70 to reverse momentum back up. Closing above 2.70 by Wednesday would greet Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Not yet triggering the 1.1333 buy signal kept the pattern vulnerable to overnight probes of lower lows, which was most glaringly exploited by ECB comments Friday morning. But that didn’t prevent recovering back up to 1.1333 and remain postured to break higher.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Rallying back above the 1317.00 buy signal to its highest levels at 1322.00 into Friday’s open. A pullback to 1317.00 was recovered to fresh highs after the close. A second consecutive higher close would confirm the breakout from a multi-session range.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s breakout under the multi-session range couldn’t be confirmed Friday if there were any near-term potential for filling the gap back up to the 2-week old 16.16 open above all prior highs. Friday’s gap up quickly attacked the lowered 15.70 buy signal. Its post-open pullback filled the gap back down to Thursday’s close before resuming the rally to fresh highs.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s gap up to the 146-16 buy signal was still being tested at the close despite probing through it intraday. It was still being tested Friday morning, although the bigger picture has formed a bullish Ascending Triangle with two highs that stopped pessimistically short, which is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Probing higher into Friday’s open gapped up to fresh 2-week highs and extended higher intraday to attack fresh highs for the month. The breakout has no reason to further delay extending higher from the multi-month inverted Head & Shoulders pattern we’ve been tracking.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Overnight lows at 2.55 that recovered to close above 2.60 would help to define a low forming, but closing above 2.70 is still needed to signal the low has launched an upleg.