Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Overnight weakness was erased before Thursday’s open, but the 1.1333 signal was only tested and not triggered. Its recovery would be likelier now to also trigger 1.1375 and launch a more substantial rally.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s bounce only touched 1217.00 which must still break higher to trigger a retest of “unfinished business” at 1228.30 and probably also 1233.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down under prior lows Thursday can’t tolerate a second consecutive lower close for the pattern to include any near-term recovery up to “unfinished business” at 16.16. Closing back above 15.70 would now signal a recovery underway.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Thursday to the prior upleg’s 146-04 target extended sharply higher to fill the gap back to last week’s 146-28 high close. Almost any follow-through Friday would be credible both for extending higher intraday, and for resuming the prior upleg.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
A slightly higher high overnight didn’t prevent dipping Thursday to test the 53.30 buy signal as support. But it was recovered back up to Wednesday’s intraday highs attacking 54.75 and remains likely to launch a new rally leg.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA from neither a position of strength nor weakness made no difference to price action which barely acknowledged the report, and only continued ranging very narrowly sideways around unchanged.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s bounce above 1.1333 peaked just under the 1.1375 buy signal. Already reacting down overnight gapped open under 1.1333 Wednesday, filling the gap back to Monday’s 1.1305 close. Eearly strength Thursday back above 1.1333 would be credible for extending higher intraday.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Waiting for Wednesday’s open before retesting the 1317.00 buy signal didn’t make it any likelier to extend higher, but it left no “unfinished business” below if the recovery were to extend higher Thursday. And having tested the buy signal up to 1321.70 intraday, its retest Thursday should extend higher if further lows will be avoided.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight weakness retested recent pullback lows before bouncing after Wednesday’s open up to the 15.80 buy signal. Its reaction back down to 15.65 support keeps the door open to one more rally attempt.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Yet more overnight weakness and fresh pullback lows down to 145-16 increased the difficulty for resuming the recent rally, while also allowing a positive close above 146-00 Wednesday to at least end the pullback.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s probes above the 53.30 buy signal had ultimately ended too low to trigger, and too low to greet Wednesday’s EIA report from a position of strength. But strength held up overnight to gap up Wednesday, and to leverage the morning’s favorable knee-jerk reaction into fresh highs testing 54.60.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s gap down into Friday’s range down to 2.60 did what Tuesday’s shallower dip did not, by testing “lower prior highs.” But the buy signal remains at 2.70. Thursday’s EIA report is not being greeted from a position of strength.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s fresh lows filled the three-week old low close’s gap and probed its intraday lows. After probing even lower overnight, closing back above 1.1333 would be credible for at least starting to form a bottom. Probing it Tuesday attacked 1.1375 whose recovery would signal the trend had reversed back up.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s dip back down to Thursday’s prior lows had held to keep the door open for triggering the 1317.00 buy signal. It was tested through Tuesday’s open, but held for a reaction that tested Monday’s 1311.00 close and at least neutralized its reaction below.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s retest of Thursday’s prior lows had kept open the door for another attempt at triggering the 15.80 buy signal. Already testing the buy signal before Tuesday’s open, its post-open reaction only dipped to fill the gap back down to Monday’s 15.65 close.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The 146-10/146-16 pullback limit’s test on Monday gave way overnight to probe fresh pullback lows down to 146-00. The gap down’s reaction blipped-up to 146-16, only to revisit the open’s low, and lower to 145-26. A recovery probably can’t tolerate much further delay beyond Wednesday morning.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Firming into Tuesday’s open had probed the 53.20 buy signal and tested 54.00 to suggest the two prior sessions’ lows were accumulative, and that the rally is resuming. Closing above 53.20 would greet Wednesday’s EIA from a position of strength.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s surge back up to 2.75 resistance had corrected overnight to at least attack Friday’s 2.60 “lower prior highs” before attempting to rally again Tuesday morning. Just closing above 2.70 would start to signal a bottom is forming.