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Bigger Picture – Page 30 – If, Then… Market Timing

Bigger Picture

Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Feb 13, 2019

A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.

Highlights: Several Fed speakers appear sporadically throughout Wednesday. Only one high-profile econ report is scheduled. Its reaction should duplicate any reaction to either the pre-open report or Fed speaker.

MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET

Raphael Bostic Speaks
7:15 AM ET

*CPI
8:30 AM ET

*Loretta Mester Speaks
8:50 AM ET

Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
10:00 AM ET

EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET

*Patrick Harker Speaks
12:00 PM ET

Treasury Budget
2:00 PM ET

Daily Spot…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Still no finding any traction below, Sunday night extended the decline to fill the gap back down to 1.1335 and then to fresh lows at 1.1300. No abrupt recovery attempt would be credible at this stage, so no buy signal is being considered.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night’s reaction back down to Thursday’s 1310.00 pullback low didn’t reject Friday’s attempt to trigger the 1317.00 buy signal, which would be credible for extending higher intraday if attempted Tuesday.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Already retracing Friday’s recovery attempt, Sunday night’s dip retested Thursday’s 15.65 prior lows, where closing back above 15.80 would still be credible for extending higher.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having fulfilled the rally’s target to retest the 147.-00 prior highs, Sunday night’s weakness extended into a deeper pullback Monday that ranged between 146-10/146-16 to avoid reversing the trend down, while keeping alive potential for reinstating the rally’s upside momentum.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday was greeted by overnight weakness still testing the 52.00 sell signal, but not yet breaking lower, and keeping alive potential for recovering 53.30 to launch another rally effort.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Avoiding a fresh low on Friday had recused Monday from any requirement to probe lower. It also enabled Sunday night’s open to gap up and touch “higher prior lows” at 2.75 that can begin forming a bottom. Closing any higher Tuesday could extend, but preferably after filling the gap back to Friday’s close under 2.60.

Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Feb 12, 2019

A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.

Highlights: Tuesday’s Jobs Openings report isn’t very high-profile, but it can be very influential if it either diverges from the interpretations of Friday’s Employment report, or if it reinforces an outlying interpretation. Neither of the pre-open report is either high-profile or influential.

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET

Redbook
8:55 AM ET

*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET

Daily Spot…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Just recovering 1.1400 would start to signal momentum reversing up, but Friday probed Thursday’s low down to 1.1355, presumably intent upon filling the gap back to the 1.1350 3-week old low close — which would not merit adjusting the buy signal.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Friday to the 1317.00 buy signal hovered there throughout the day, still overlapping the signal without clearly triggering or rejecting it.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up above the 15.80 buy signal Friday reacted back down to nearly fill the gap back to Thursday’s close, and the afternoon evolved between 15.75-15.80.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Already trending higher overnight gapped up Friday and extended higher through the morning to essentially fulfill the 147-00 objective. Upside momentum remains intact so long as pullbacks now hold 146-14 as support.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The 52.40 sell signal that had been probed momentarily Thursday continued holding Friday, as did the 52.00 sell signal whose break would not require extending through the close to be relevant.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s fresh lows didn’t extend lower Friday, and without fresh lows into the weekend there is potential for attracting buyers going into the new week.