Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Already having missed the end of its window to rally by Tuesday afternoon, Wednesday trended down further and so did the overnight. Thursday’s open gapped down to the 61.8% retracement of the 2-week old low close and the next day’s gap up (view Market Wrap for details) at 1.1366. It held, and now closing above 1.1400 would reverse momentum back up.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight weakness down to 1306.50 filled another gap that helped to neutralize its attraction below, while remaining within the orbit of last Thursday’s 1328.30 gap up that still needs to be retested from below, probably up to 1333.00. Closing back up above 1317.00 would signal the recovery underway again.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Lower lows overnight down to 15.63 need to define the pullback’s low to keep alive potential for retracing the current leg back up to 16.16 without needing first to form a bottoming pattern. Closing back above 15.80 would signal the recovery underway.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Already rallying to a fresh high again overnight further chipped away at the 146-04 resistance to allow retesting the 147-00 prior high, if not also to resume the rally. Thursday’s gap up ranged sideways around Wednesday’s 146-09 high, needing a higher close to signal momentum remains intact.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Flat-to-lower ranging overnight trended down sharply Thursday from Wednesday’s 54.00 close to probe the 52.15 sell signal down to 51.80. A gap fill at 52.00 requires a second consecutive lower close to confirm momentum reversing down, and meanwhile closing back above 53.20 would reject Thursday’s sell signal and reverse the trend back up.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was being greeted from a position of weakness before probing even lower overnight. Thursday extended down to fresh lows attacking 2.55, maintaining a pattern that is unable to trigger a buy signal.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Holding the 1.1450 pullback limit at Tuesday’s close was less relevant than not yet rallying that afternoon. An immediate rally Wednesday could have compensated for the delay had the pattern intended to resolve up. But the pullback extended overnight and Wednesday gapped down to a fresh pullback low. Closing back above 1.1450-1.1485 would be credible for resuming the rally.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Narrow, flat ranging again on Wednesday doesn’t prevent retesting last week’s highs up to 1333.00, but it would suggest the bounce’s sponsorship was weak-handed and unable to extend higher.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s dip back down to the original pullback limit that had held initially Tuesday must hold its retest and recovery quickly to avoid a deeper corrective dip.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s reversal back down from 146-00 to the 145-16 buy signal was already being recovered to a fresh high overnight. Having originally stopped pessimistically short of its potential to 146-04, Wednesday’s retest of Tuesday’s high was likely to probe higher, which it did, but still must close above 146-04 to confirm at least a retest of last week’s 147-00 high.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Initially dipping overnight and reacting down again Wednesday morning was recovered into the range, in-line with having greeted the morning’s EIA report from a position of strength. There shouldn’t be much delay before converting the stability into a new rally leg.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s narrow ranging didn’t bounce back into “higher prior lows” so that Monday’s gap down could be neutralized from above. So, Thursday’s EIA report is not being greeted from a position of strength.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The preferably 1.1485 pullback limit was probed to its room for noise down to 1.1450 Tuesday. Still holding keeps alive the rally potential. But the window is not unlimited, and not already rallying into Tuesday afternoon is not helpful.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Flat, narrow ranging Tuesday held “lower prior highs” to remain position for retesting last week’s highs up to 1333.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s dip back down to the 15.82 buy signal held as support to maintain near-term potential for filling Thursday’s 16.16 opening gap.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Initial strength Tuesday quickly extended through the 145-16 buy signal to test 146-00, and then retraced back down to 145-16. Closing higher Wednesday would signal a bigger rally underway targeting at least last week’s highs.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Choppy sideways ranging Tuesday held the range’s upper-end to remain within proximity of probing fresh highs, greeting Wednesday’s EIA from a position of strength.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Fresh lows were probed overnight, but Tuesday’s intraday developed entirely within Monday’s range. Strength, or not, a bottom can’t form until a recovery into “higher prior lows” is retraced to fill the gap back down to Monday’s open.