Bigger Picture
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Feb 6, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: No high-profile or reliably influential econ reports are scheduled for Wednesday. (Barely anything more for the balance of the week, too.). But any reaction to the pre-open report would likely be duplicated in reaction to the post-open reports.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
Productivity and Costs
8:30 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
1.1485 was still being tested as support into Monday’s open, and then probed intraday. Closing back above 1.1520 can still launch another upleg.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night’s dip tested Tue-Wed’s “lower prior highs” so that retesting Thursday’s 1328.30 gap up above all prior highs. Closing back above 1323.00 would put into play fresh highs targeting 1333.00.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s low had already retraced Wednesday’s “lower prior highs,” and the retracement extended lower Sunday night, filling the ga back down to last Monday’s 15.75 close. Closing back above 15.82 — which was already being probed Monday morning — can now retest Thursday’s 16.13 gap up to neutralize its attraction.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s dip had held the gap between Wednesday’s close and Thursday’s gap up at 145-28. Extending lower Sunday night persisted sharply lower Monday morning down to 145-00. Back above 145-16 would target at least 146-04, and possibly resume the rally.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Narrowly ranging around Friday’s highs Sunday night gave way to gap down Monday morning and retrace lower prior highs at 53.30. Closing back above 54.15 keeps alive upside potential
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Having ended the week testing new extremes, Monday was likely to extend lower, which had begun already Sunday night. Gapping down to fresh lows at 2.65 Monday makes an immediate recovery unlikely, even if Tuesday were to begin rallying.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Feb 5, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s post-open services data aren’t individually reliable for influencing price action. But their timing to each other is vulnerable to reinforcing a surprise, or to contradicting the other — in either case, creating more volatility.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*PMI Services Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Saturday Review’s recording (for 2/2/19) …Back to baby steps.
Friday’s second consecutive close above 2701.00 was borderline. Not too borderline to immediately question its relevance — which is to confirm the rally’s next higher target at 2756.00 is in-play. But borderline enough to suspect at least a nominal corrective dip testing 2681.00-2682.00 could develop, or even a brief dip to 2666.00 before resuming the rally. Reversing the trend down without testing the rally’s next higher objective would require closing back under 2666.00 and lower, and not very quickly. This weekend’s Saturday Review describes the patterns creating those paths, and outlines possible paths for anticipating Monday’s influences.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
WDC, AMD, GOOGL, EA, GDX, GLD, SWKS, SFLY, DATA, FEYE, FTNT, IRBT, NEWR, YUM, GRUB
transcript
—————– (02/02/2019 09:34) —————–
ljr: gm
jp: gm
Bill G: gm
Mark G: gm
David B: Good Morning
Rod David: Please post questions and comments as they occur to you
—————– (02/02/2019 09:42) —————–
Mark G: Retracing FOMC reaction within a week is still an option?
—————– (02/02/2019 09:52) —————–
Bill G: What’s the .618 price above the triangle?
—————– (02/02/2019 09:53) —————–
David B: WDC,AMD
David B: GDX,GLD
ljr: GOOGL (earnings mon after close)
ljr: EA, SWKS, SFLY, DATA (earnings tues after close)
ljr: FEYE, FTNT, IRBT, NEWR (earnings wed after close)
ljr: YUM, GRUB (earnings thurs before open)
—————– (02/02/2019 10:25) —————–
ljr: yum all time highs
—————– (02/02/2019 10:27) —————–
Mark G: thx much
ljr: many thanks!
David B: Thanks
Bill G: thx
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!