Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s pullback to 1.1485 reacted up Friday to test 1.1520, whose recovery would start to signal the rally had resumed.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s weakness stopped short of touching “lower prior highs” down to at least 1317.00 that must be tested before a bounce can neutralize the attraction back up to the 1328.30 gap up that wants to be retested. Its test wouldn’t necessarily form a top, but r\Resuming the rally prematurely won’t be reliable for extending higher.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
“Lower prior highs” at 15.97 were tested Friday, so that any reaction up to the 16.13 gap can neutralize its attraction above.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Trending back down intraday Friday retraced all of Thursday’s post-open rally, into the gap back to Wednesday’s close and holding its room for noise down to 145-28. The rally cannot afford to delay resuming.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s intraday reversal down into negative territory from the morning’s fresh recovery highs was retraced entirely Friday to suggest a four-day setup is forming. Its fourth day in the sequence is Monday, and probing fresh highs intraday would be unlikely to hold through the close. So, closing higher anyway would be very bullish.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Already extending lower Thursday after having greeted the EIA report with essentially a position of weakness, Friday extended the decline to lower lows. Fresh lows into the weekend in this market tend to probe lower on Monday at some point, regardless of the close.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday afternoon’s surge up to 1.1545 in reaction to FOMC fulfilled the confirmed breakouts requirement for at least an eventual third higher close. Its optimal 1.1520 pullback limit was probed Thursday morning back down to the 1.1485 prior target. .

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s post-close surge in reaction to FOMC had fulfilled the rally’s next higher objective at 1326.50, and it was maintained overnight and probed above 1331.00. Thursday’s gap up to 1328.50 above all prior highs will need to be retested eventually from below.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Already firming Wednesday afternoon ahead of FOMC, the rally persisted overnight to fresh highs that extended higher at Thursday’s open up to 16.20. The open’s 16.13 gap up above all prior highs will need to be retested eventually from below.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Resuming Wednesday’s late break without hesitation after the close extended higher overnight to gap up above 146-00 and extend further Thursday morning to 146-28. The confirmed breakout now requires there to be at least an eventual third higher close. Pullbacks must hold 146-08/1467-16 to maintain near-term upside momentum.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Ranging narrowly sideways overnight broke higher Thursday morning to 55.37. But the afternoon reversed down sharply back down to “lower prior highs” at 53.80, which Wednesday’s open had gapped up above. A deeper pullback must hold 53.30 to maintain the breakout’s momentum.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report wasn’t greeted from a position of strength, especially not after two consecutive sessions had printed fresh intraday lows. Falling back down to last Friday’s 2.80 low was redundant having been a test of early January lows. Closing above 3.05 is needed to indicate a bottom has formed, but the pattern is otherwise at risk of extending down.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Still ranging flat Wednesday morning didn’t undermine the outstanding requirement for the confirmed breakout to produce its minimum eventual third higher close. Surging out of the FOMC statement closed above 1.1485 to fulfill the minimum objective, while also suggesting much more follow-through to the upside.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Already probing higher overnight to within $5 of the 1325.00 target (basis Apr, 1319.50 basis Feb) was retraced back into Tuesday’s range. The FOMC statement triggered a post-close surge that fulfilled the target. No higher objective is in-play, but an immediate reversal down in this pattern is unlikely.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh highs overnight retested the prior high that had preceded the interim downtrending channel. A post-close surge to fresh highs above 16.05 suggests the rally will extend higher.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s narrow sideways range seemed oblivious to the FOMC events. A second consecutive higher close would have confirmed the recent strength, so delaying an upleg much beyond Thursday morning would start to become bearish.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday morning’s rally to fresh highs attacking 55.00 was retraced back down to “lower prior highs” at 54.15. The rally effort remains intact.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Flat ranging at the lows is greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness. A fresh low in the sequence is likely before any durable rally can be credible.