Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Probing higher overnight was mostly retraced before Thursday’s open, which extended higher again to and through the overnight high to attack 1.0545. The gap back down to Tuesday’s 1.0435 low close should still be filled before a durable rally can get underway.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s fluctuation around unchanged didn’t suggest any new buying sponsorship had arrived which would otherwise help to prevent extending the decline to its next lower objective at 1118.00. Meanwhile, a bounce must hold 1147.00-1149.00 to keep the lower objective in-play.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Initially dipping Thursday morning only attacked Tuesday’s 15.75 opening gap down which requires a retest, before reversing into positive territory. Essentially all of the bounce was rejected, still needing to test the “unfinished business below” to help complete a bottom forming.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Slightly higher highs overnight at 149-11 were retraced into Thursday’s open and then extended down slightly intraday down to 148-12, as at least one more lower close remains outstanding before a durable bottom can form. Meanwhile, the potential for a more substantial corrective rally should be considered on a close above 149-22.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Dipping Wednesday back down to the 52.50 buy signal and then deeper overnight and intraday. Recovering back above 53.00 was only nominal compared to the outperformance the pattern needs to produce immediately to indicate the buy signal’s retest had held.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Higher highs overnight at 3.62 were somewhat retraced into Thursday’s open, and then retested into the morning’s EIA report. While the reaction didn’t extend up, the pullback held 1-2 cents above 3.49 to avoid reversing momentum down.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s retest of the lowest calculable 1.0410 target had recovered to avoid closing under the 1.0435 pullback limit so that a bottom could begin forming. Although it’s premature to yet recover, Wednesday gapped up and traded exclusively in positive territory, still at or under prior highs.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up slightly Wednesday only attacked 1139.00 before retracing back to Tuesday’s close, still no likelier than not to fulfill the decline’s 1118.00 objective or test the 1147.00-1149.00 bounce potential first.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s recovery from gapping down to its 15.67 target did not extend higher Wednesday, still attracted lower to test Tuesday’s open from above.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Monday not only further delayed fulfilling the minimum requirement for at least one more lower close, but also created a new attraction below at the gap back down to Friday’s close. Gapping down Tuesday  didn’t extend, and Wednesday firmed back up to Monday’s 149-04 high, which does not affect the pattern.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Firming after Tuesday’s API report didn’t extend higher, but dipping after Wednesday morning’s EIA report did revisit the 52.40 buy signal. The rally should resume without further delay to maintain the near-term target of retesting last Sunday night’s 55.45 high.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s open gapped up to Monday’s close, forming an Island of Tuesday’s gap down that had probed fresh relative lows down to 3.24. Peaking at or under 3.50 (which was probed intraday) keeps alive near-term potential to resume the decline targeting 3.18.