Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s gap down retested the 1.0410 lowest calculable objective that had held already last week. Bouncing back up to 1.0435 avoided a second consecutive close under it that would have required the decline to extend. Almost any initial strength Wednesday morning would be credible for extending higher intraday.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The corrective bounce’s 1136.50 signal had triggered artificially and wasn’t immediately rejected, giving a benefit of the doubt to extending the bounce. It didn’t. Tuesday’s break back under 1136.50 doesn’t prevent the bounce from extending, but it opens the door as widely to simply extending down to the 1118.00 objective still in-play..

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down sharply Tuesday fulfilled the 15.66 to within 1 penny and reversed up sharply back into positive territory. The opening gap below must still be tested from above, and it’s premature to expect a durable rally leg, but this action does allow a bottom to begin forming..

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s gap down within Monday’s range didn’t reject Monday’s gap up, so even the price weakness reflects optimism that is only delaying fulfilling the outstanding requirement for at least one more lower close, and probably making a more substantial new low likely..

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up slightly Tuesday to test 53.75 didn’t extend, and was retraced to fill the gap back down to Monday’s ~53.10 close. While a positive close would fulfill the minimum requirement of Friday’s sub-optimal breakout, a retest of last Sunday night’s 54.90-55.30 highs remains outstanding..

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Sunday night’s dip to 3.33 had been retraced before Monday’s open but never rejected intraday, so trending down deeper into Tuesday’s open helped confirm the 3.19 target is in-play, already testing 3.24 intraday..

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Last week’s test of the 4.0410 lowest calculable objective doesn’t require a retest, despite Friday’s high having held a test of the decline’s initial 1.0525 target as resistance. But bottoming requires that 1.0435 not break as support, at least through any close, at least for no more than one session.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s spike up through the 1135.50 buy signal was in reaction to destabilizing news instead of organic, so its 1146.00-1149.00 target wasn’t any likelier to be met. But 1135.50 held as a pullback limit through Monday’s open so the target area’s test is likely anyway.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s inside day gapped down slightly and trended down slightly, which suggests that weak hands are pessimistic. That is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective, but does not preclude one more probe of fresh lows with potential to 15.66.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday repeated the pattern of bouncing optimistically by gapping up, instead of fulfilling the requirement for at least one more new low close. The cumulative delay suggests that more than one new low close will develop to compensate for the delay.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Overnight strength up to 52.50 was retraced to greet Monday in negative territory, and not retested despite returning to positive territory intraday. A second consecutive close Monday would confirm Friday’s breakout, requiring at least an eventual third higher close.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Dipping overnight to a fresh low at 3.33 was recovered before Monday’s open, but momentum did not reverse up, making fresh lows likely with potential down to 3.19.