Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Continuing to hover just under the 1.0685 bounce limit Wednesday morning was finally rejected in reaction to the afternoon’s FOMC policy statement. Plunging essentially filled the gap back down to Friday’s 1.0556 close. Regardless, at least one more eventual low close remains outstanding.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Wednesday to 1162.00 extended higher briefly to 1168.00, but greeted the afternoon’s FOMC statement back down at 1162.00. Its reaction spiked down to new lows at 1150.00, next targeting 1142.00 if not isolated by Thursday’s open, but even then.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s open gapped up to the 17.05 buy signal and extended back to prior highs above 17.25. But the FOMC triggered a plunge down to 16.90 that must be recovered back above 17.05 at Thursday’s open to isolate it.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Wednesday ranged all morning around Tuesday’s test of the 149-22 bounce limit, probing above 150-00. Plunging in reaction to FOMC probed negative territory at 148-22, with a new low close requirement still outstanding.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down Wednesday was the lowest price since Sunday night’s gap up. “Lower prior highs” were tested at 51.55, and back above 52.75 may be the nearest buy signal for the rally next targeting 56.15 — preferably resuming no later than Thursday morning.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The 3.44 fresh low overnight was attacked to within 1 penny Wednesday morning before bouncing back up into the prior two days’ range at 3.55. Tuesday’s confirmation to Monday’s breakout wasn’t optimal, so just the fresh low intraday might satisfy selling pressure. But until closing above 3.59, a fresh low close remains likely anyway.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s corrective bounce extended a little higher Tuesday, still having room up to 1.0685 while maintaining a near-term attraction back down to the gap at Friday’s close, as well as a likelihood for probing new lows.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
An overnight dip that recovered into Tuesday’s open was too shallow anyway to qualify as the selling effort that a bottoming pattern would need to finish forming. A steeper and deeper post-open dive tested the likely 1157.50 objective and tried holding it. Closing positive would be bullish, as would closing above 1166.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Filling the gap back up to its recent high close Monday was likely to produce a reaction down Tuesday, but its objective in the 17.00-17.10 area was exceeded to also retest 16.90. That’s deeper than would have been optimal, creating more room to recover before even launching a new upleg, which would be signaled by closing back above 17.05.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Tuesday held resistance at 149-22 before retracing into the afternoon’s 30-year auction. The gap back to Monday’s 148-11 close was only attacked, stopping optimistically short of filling, while at least a third lower close in the decline is still required.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Sideways ranging continued to depend on the rally’s 52.75 upside target to serve as a pullback limit while maintaining upside potential for extending to 56.15..

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s inside day didn’t reject Monday’s break lower, although a second consecutive lower close would be decisively bearish to require at least an eventual third lower close. None of which precludes there still being a lower close — at least probing lower intraday.