Bigger Picture
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up sharply Monday morning nevertheless only held a natural retest of higher prior lows while filling the gap back to Thursday’s 1.0620 close. Slightly higher highs suggest the 1.0685 sell signal will be revisited before reversing back down, unless first closing back under 1.0610.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh lows overnight down to 1152.50 were not revisited intraday Monday, which instead bounced back up to test 1166.00 resistance. Sunday night’s low doesn’t require being retested before a rally begins, but some sort of failed selling effort is likely.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sunday night’s momentary dip to 16.77 reacted up aggressively to isolate its probe under 16.90 to the overnight. This leaves no bullish reason to further delay rallying. In fact, extending above 17.10 does signal the pullback has ended. Filling the gap back to Wednesday’s 17.27 close might inhibit extending higher immediately, perhaps to await Gold completing its own bottom.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fresh low overnight at 147-10 was attacked to only 147-22 post open Monday. Closing lower Monday but within Sunday night’s range would not fulfill the confirmed breakout’s requirement for at least an eventual third lower close — but it would allow probing fresh lows intraday to recover.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Sunday night’s open gapped up sharply through the 52.75 target, which became the pullback limit. Reacting down Monday morning held the pullback limit’s test down to 52.55. to test/hold it. Holding it would be optimal for maintaining the next higher objective at 56.15.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Sunday night from 3.75 to and through the 3.59 sell signal extended lower Monday to test the 3.47 prior sell signal. The gap back up to 3.75 may yet be revisited.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Dec 13, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s most influential economic event isn’t a report, but the 30-year auction, which greets a deeply-depressed market. None of the session’s actual reports is either high-profile or has a reliable track record of influencing price action.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*30-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET
Globex open just popped 10 points.
Friday’s rally into the final hour had fulfilled its highest calculable objective at 2254.25. Reacting down touched 2151.75, and any deeper would have reversed momentum down, albeit too late to damage the chart. Anyway, its touch bounced back up to 2254.25 and firmed another point into the futures close.
Now Sunday night’s open has surged 10 points to attack 2265.00. The catalyst is an oil output deal that has pushed Crude Oil $1.25 above its 52.75 target, with potential up to 56.15. This weekend’s Saturday Review noted that the next higher objective has room up to 2270.00, but also that a higher close is not assured, while a multi-session pullback is getting likelier.
MONITOR GLOBEX IN THE CHARTROOM HERE
watch the Saturday Review recording here
Saturday Review’s recording (for 12/10/16) … Entrenched.
This weekend’s Saturday Review described the setups that got the market to its current lofty position, dating back to last month’s election.
One important and obvious question we addressed is “what makes the rally extend any higher?” All upside requirements have been fulfilled up to 2247.25 and 2252.50, including newer requirements that are being satisfied almost as quickly as they’re created. But the trend still finds ways to entrench itself — like Friday’s new trend extreme close. That only helps to ensure that a pullback is recovered, perhaps to probe fresh highs within the room for noise.
But other than room up to 2256.50 or 2270.00, no higher objective is currently in-play. A pullback would allow new targets to be calculated. And a pullback has room down to the rally’s prior objective of 2215.00 or “lower prior highs” around 2205.00 without reversing the rally’s trend.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
AMD, IBB, BIIB, GDX, GDXJ, AAPL, GS, BAC, NFLX, AMZN, PSDV, GWPH, CMG, FB
Saturday Review Link (RESENDING)
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!