Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s break under 1.0685 extended down deeper Friday to test month-old prior lows at 1.0535. Already having probed under it Sunday previously suggests that the likely retest will not form a quick bottom and recovery..

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s dip back under the 1178.50 pullback limit extended much deeper, retesting not only the decline’s 1166.00 target but also attacking prior lows under 1160.00. This action contradicts the bottoming effort, which still must be aggressive in launching a rally leg.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Room for noise down to 17.00 was probed Friday down to 17.90, almost as deep as possible without yet reversing the trend down.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s overdue break was confirmed Friday by gapping down and trending lower, producing a second consecutive lower close that attacked prior lows. An eventual third lower close is now required, targeting 147-21.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up Friday was an appropriate start to an upleg targeting fresh highs at 52.75, which would be confirmed by a second consecutive higher close Monday, and could extend higher anyway so long as pullbacks hold 50.50.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Fresh highs tested 3.75 Friday which would trigger an extended upleg if recovered through the close. Otherwise, closing back under 3.57 would reverse the trend down for at least a correctiion.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Blipping up sharply in reaction to Thursday’s ECB news was reversed back down more sharply Thursday morning, testing the 1.0650 pullback limit. Holding its test prior to probing fresh highs would have been bullish. Not holding its test after probing fresh highs is bearish. And it was broken down to 1.0600, where Sunday night’s drop to fresh lows was triggered. There is no active signal.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s shallow dip was similar to Wednesday’s brief probe above 1180.00, both reflecting restrained optimism, which can be bullish from a contrarian perspective — and which should behave very optimistically upon actually breaking above 1180.00. But the shallow dip must continue holding its test of the 1172.50 pullback limit.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Thursday held a test of the 17.00-17.10 pullback limit to maintain the upside momentum. But a second consecutive higher confirming close was not produced, so the rally effort cannot tolerate a second consecutive dip.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s narrow ranging around 151-05 had kept alive potential for resuming the decline, if done immediately, since Wednesday had needed already to resume the decline. Thursday’s gap down did not compensate for the delay because it did not extend lower intraday. Regardless, a second consecutive lower close Friday is needed to confirm.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Still consolidating under the 50.50 pullback limit Thursday without extending down has kept alive the potential for rally back up to the 52.75 target. The optimal start would be sudden, steep and substantial.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s muted reaction to the EIA report didn’t reflect the weakness that greeted it. Perhaps that is because a probe of lower lows overnight was recovered and isolated at the open. Still the intraday reaction was also shallow. There is no active signal.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Tuesday wasn’t likely to end the rally. But it can be corrected down to 1.0650 and still be likely to recover for fresh highs — which would likely be tested if Thursday isn’t already extending Wednesday’s bounce.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Wednesday to and through the 1178.50 pullback limit that was broken Tuesday probed temporarily above the 1180.00 trigger, which closing above should launch a substantial rally.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday morning’s surge confirms that Tuesday’s inside day hovering at Monday’s highs was not bearish. Pullbacks meanwhile should hold any test of 17.00-17.10.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Wednesday morning doesn’t honor the immediate necessity to resume the decline — at least for probing fresh lows — or else a bottom may be forming. Still overlapping 151-05 does prevent gaining upside traction.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Weak EIA data triggered a deeper dip Wednesday morning that probed under the 50.50 pullback limit by 75 cents. There is no more room or time remaining to resume the rally, or at least to try temporarily, if the 52.75 target remains in-play.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Probing another fresh high overnight at 3.75 needed to extend, or at least be maintained, to greet Thursday’s EIA report in a position of strength. The entire gain was retraced at least to fill the gap back down to Tuesday’s close. Closing negative would greet EIA from a position of weakness.