Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Ranging around the 1.1100 target had never broken higher, but an Ascending Triangle had formed through Friday, thanks to its inside day. Nevertheless, gapping down under the range’s low Monday and extending down intraday signals a reversal targeting 1.1000 and potentially also 1.0965. It’s likely only a temporary corrective leg since it had originated from a failed Ascending Triangle.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down Monday extended to actually test the 1284.00 pullback limit that was narrowly avoided at Thursday’s open. Regardless, Friday was the opportunity to reject Thursday’s intraday recovery, so Monday’s dip should prove to be only a retest of the pullback low. Otherwise, confirming the break would target at leas 1266.00 and probably 1252.50.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping back down Sunday night extended lower Monday morning to attack or test the 18.05 pullback limit which had held Thursday’s gap down. It’s probably too late to confirm the original break since it wasn’t rejected immediately Friday.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Monday back under the 163-02 bounce limit has no more traction than the probes above it — until closing under 162-16. Regardless, extending down would be in-line with expectations to better form a bottom by probing under it again, probably to 160-10.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Already having bounced early Friday from the decline’s 43.75 target, opening firmer or gapping up Monday was free to extend higher. So, the session’s restrained optimism does suggest that actually rallying could be very productive, regardless of its vulnerability to the decline eventually extending.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up slightly Monday was not the rejection of Wednesday’s gap down that would launch a credible recovery. Closing above 2.88 and 2.91 remain the minimum requirement to being signaling the decline has ended and that momentum may be reversing up.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s return into Wednesday’s range prevented forming an Island Reversal. Still hovering at Wednesday’s upper-end Friday may prevent reversing back under 1.1100 before extending up to 1.1195. But closing back under 1.1100 would still suggest the bounce had ended already.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Relatively narrow fluctuation Friday kept alive the potential for producing the minimum requirement for a third higher close before any deeper pullback.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s pullback low wasn’t retested or attacked Friday, despite initial weakness, suggesting that the attraction to a new relative high close remains intact and in-play.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s choppy open was again attracted back to 163-02, which again bounced to attack 163-27 resistance. A bigger bounce remains unlikely, although closing above 164-08 would suggest something more substantial to the upside is underway. Otherwise, back under 162-16 would likely trigger a break to fresh lows targeting 160-10.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The downleg that triggered under 50.80 got off to a slow and shallow start. Its decline contained a shallow consolidation. And it has extended to fulfill its 43.75 target. Already fulfilling the objective suggests that a corrective bounce will resolve in an even lower low, and probably not just hold a retest of 43.75.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s narrow range at recent lows doesn’t reject their break, but it maintains the potential for closing Monday above 2.88.to end the decline’s momentum or above 3.00 to reverse the trend back up.