Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Thursday back under Tuesday’s highs could have formed an Island of Wednesday’s probe above the 1.1100 target. But Thursday’s post-open bounce filled the gap back up to Wednesday’s close and probed back into Wednesday’s range. There is now no “unfinished business above” to ensure a recovery if a decline were to begin.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tumbling overnight exploited almost all the room below for a pullback attacking 1283.50-1286.00. Thursday’s gap down had already begun recovering, and the morning;s bounce extended back above 1300.00. An eventual third higher close is in-play.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Dropping sharply overnight to test its 18.05 pullback limit was reversed back up Thursday. An eventual third higher close is in-play.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Bouncing to and through the 163-02 bounce limit over two days has led to the third day gapping back down under 163-02. While the bottoming attempt around 161-22 is probably not complete, Friday’s Employment Situation report isn’t necessarily being greeted from a position of weakness — reacting down to fresh lows and then closing higher would seal a bottom, especially if the fresh lows had visited 160-10.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Reacting up to 45.70 resistance Thursday was reversed back down to fresh lows under 45.00. The decline’s ultimate 43.75 objective would be lowered if met by the current uncorrected downleg.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was not greeted from a position of strength. But its reaction was muted, and not necessarily any more bearish than already being at fresh lows. Closing back above 2.88 would be the earliest signal of a bottom forming.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Wednesday extended through the 1.1100 target, which must now hold as support  to maintain the upside momentum.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s gap up extended through the 1304.00 target for a second consecutive higher close confirming Tuesday’s breakout. At least an eventual third higher close is now required.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s gap up trended higher intraday, and produced a second consecutive higher close confirming Tuesday’s breakout. At least an eventual third higher close is now required..

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Rallying overnight to gap up Wednesday morning above the 163-02 bounce limit was retraced almost immediately to fill the gap back down to Tuesday’s close. Another rally intraday attacked the overnight highs, and “higher prior lows” at 163-27. All of which developed prior to the afternoon’s FOMC policy statement.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Breaking sharply lower again Wednesday probed under the 45.70 target. Already extending down to the ultimate 43.25 target is difficult after trending so far so recently. But it is likely so long as 45.70 holds as resistance.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s fresh low had fulfilled the decline’s structural objective, to its 2.87 calculable objective, and price reacted up from there intraday. None of which prevented Wednesday’s gap down under prior lows. Thursday’s EIA report is not being greeted from a position of strength, other than for the potential of forming an Island reversal pattern.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s correction of the recently started rally was already resolving at Monday’s gap up. The 1.1100 target was attacked up to 1.1090, and remains in-play so long as pullbacks hold 1.1050.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up above the recent test of 1283.50 resistance to 1286.50 extended to 1292.00 and hovered. Above 1293.00 would next target 1304.50, but meanwhile recent “lower prior highs” down to 1275.00 all but require a retest before a credible recovery could begin.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Already firming after Monday’s close at 17.80 resistance then rallied overnight to greet Tuesday’s open gapping up at 18.25, and then extended higher intraday to test 18.52. A pullback has room down to 18.05 before signaling at least a significant correction underway.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Room for bouncing up to 163-02 had not been fully utilized before reversing down overnight to attack recent lows to within 5-6 ticks at 161-26. Bouncing into the open allowed only a slightly lower gap down, which immediately reversed down to fresh lows at 161-22. An actual probe of fresh lows is likely before a credible bottoming attempt — which had better become obvious soon if Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes and Friday’s Employment Situation report will be greeted bullishly.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Two separate overnight probes under Monday’s low each bounced, the second one being accompanied by RSIs diverging positively. But a corrective bounce having room up to 47.50-47.70 was ignored as the decline extended down to 46.25, targeting 45.70 and potentially 43.75.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s doomed gap up had retraced already back into low’s consolidation, and extended down overnight to fulfill the 2.97 low’s retest. Extending down through the open tested and held the 2.87 extended target where a credible recovery could start forming.