Bigger Picture
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Nov 2, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The proximity to reporting monthly employment data brings with it several private takes on the picture. ADP’s report is controversial, but reaction to it helps to fine-tune our expectations for Friday. Meanwhile, the afternoon’s FOMC meeting isn’t likely to finally rate hikes, but harsher language warning of it could be as influential to price action.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index
8:30 AM ET
Treasury Refunding Announcement
8:30 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*FOMC Meeting Announcement
2:00 PM ET
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Monday from Friday’s bounce hasn’t invalidated the upside momentum still having potential to 1.1100.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s open gapped down from Friday’s late surge and its post-close extension that had ultimately tested and held 1283.50. Narrow ranging intraday didn’t try resuming the rally, but also doesn’t make 1266.00 and 1252.50 likelier yet to be tested in reaction.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s price action hugged the 17.80 resistance whose recovery would start to signal a new upleg possibly forming.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Firming Monday back up to Friday’s 162-23 high still has potential for testing 163-02 before one more probe of fresh lows prior to this week’s Employment Situation report.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Sunday night’s drop to fresh lows extended down further Monday, now requiring bounces to hold 47.50-47.70 to maintain the decline’s momentum.
Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s failure to already recover 3.12 doomed to failure Monday morning’s probe above it. Gapping up to test 3.16 was reversed throughout the morning back into negative territory and into last week’s Symmetrical Triangle, testing 3.03. Fresh lows are likely before a rally would be credible.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Nov 1, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s PMI and ISM numbers are reliable for influencing price action, despite Monday’s PMI miss not having had much impact.
Gallup US ECI
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Sunday night’s Globex… The world’s turn.
Only US markets were available for reaction to Friday’s FBI announcement. Soon, the rest of the world will have an opportunity to react — not only to the news, but also to the US markets reaction, which was very pessimistic. World markets will react before US markets to the weekend’s clarification of Friday’s news, which has been little, and to its spin, which has been much. Oh, and BOE’s Carney was rumored to be resigning, and now not, but that’s not very interesting. Charts will be available when Globex opens at 6:00pm ET.
Saturday Review’s recording (for 10/29/16) …
Friday’s news and the market’s reaction didn’t much change the pattern that was developing into Friday’s open. And the pattern at Friday’s close probably wasn’t much different than it would have been otherwise. At least, not in terms of possible resolutions. We discuss those possible resolutions, their likelihoods, and more, in this weekend’s Saturday Review.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
GOOGL, MSFT, WDC, AMZN, AAPL, NVDA, TXN, BAC
| 10/29/2016 09:31:56 David B: Good Morning 10/29/2016 09:32:08 Mark Glezer: gm 10/29/2016 09:59:42 Mark Glezer: how long an non-durable gap up can last – probably not too long since all recent gaps up were reversed to fresh lows? 10/29/2016 10:04:51 David B: On monday when you talked about an anchor, is this generally strong hands? 10/29/2016 10:08:26 Mark Glezer: 2.9% growth suggests that a rate hike is coming very soon & mkt does not like it even though it knows it’s coming 10/29/2016 10:16:18 Mark Glezer: we’ve been range bound in the past few weeks, do u think a durable break out is coming soon, perhaps induced by election’s volatility or not necessarily? 10/29/2016 10:17:46 Mark Glezer: === 10/29/2016 10:17:57 Mark Glezer: same for a break lower? 10/29/2016 10:19:23 David B: MSFT,WDC 10/29/2016 10:21:37 David B: can you do msft after 10/29/2016 10:22:10 David B: i’m seeing googl 10/29/2016 10:22:16 David B: chart 10/29/2016 10:22:31 David B: i’m seeing googl 10/29/2016 10:22:36 G: googl 10/29/2016 10:22:51 David B: yes 10/29/2016 10:29:51 David B: NVDA,TXN 10/29/2016 10:35:04 Mark Glezer: thx much 10/29/2016 10:35:18 David B: thanks |