Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up already Wednesday from Tuesday’s bottoming pattern was a little too too soon for such aggression to be reliable for extending higher. Its reaction down back into Tuesday’s range now allows another rally effort to be credible.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Extending higher after Tuesday’s close was retraced before Wednesday’s open, undermining the corrective bounce’s potential up to 1283.50. Closing back under 1266.00 would resume the potential for testing at least 125, if not also 1236.00.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Never actually probing above the 17.80 buy signal, let alone closing above it, has kept alive the attraction to retesting or attacking recent lows.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s open gapped back down to test 163-27 and 164-08 that must hold to maintain the bottoming pattern trying to form, and potential for bouncing to 165-30 and 166-19.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up Wednesday  to reflect Tuesday’s post-close surge was soon rejected by a reversal down from above 50.00 to back under 49.00. That barely filled the gap back down to Tuesday’s close, but the decline has little excuse not to extend without delay.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday gapped down again after Tuesday had already fulfilled the third lower close requirement. The session nevertheless extended down sharply to 2.97, levels not seen since June. The drop now has room down to 2.86 before launching any reliable corrective bounce.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s slightly lower low came within 10 pips of the outstanding 1.0865. target. Then it recovered back above Monday’s prior high, forming an outside day that rejected a probe under prior lows. If not exploited too quickly by impatient buyers — e.g. gapping up — then a durable bottom may be allowed to form.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing back under the 1266.00 buy signal twice Monday was recovered again by Tuesday’s gap up. Last week’s 1276.00 high of the original probe was attacked intraday, and then probed after the close to suggest the 1283.50 bounce target is in-play.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s retest of Monday’s high also retested the 17.80 buy signal that closing above would trigger a rally, whether temporary or durable. Once again failing to trigger it by Wednesday’s open would make an attack on recent lows likelier.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Dipping overnight under the 163-27 support to the bottoming pattern trying to form was recovered pre-open to also probe back above the 164-08 pullback limit and test 165-02 — all of which keeps alive the bounce’s attraction to 165-30 and 166-19.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s inside day wasn’t itself predictive, but it didn’t attract sponsorship to reject Monday’s probe of the current range’s lows, which itself makes a break lower likelier.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Rolling forward to from Nov to Dec is not directly comparable, with price differences ranging from 20 33 cents at various relevant price points. But last week’s two-day range is more defined, so its breakout Friday that was confirmed on Monday makes at least a third lower close likelier. And Tuesday’s lower close can satisfy the requirement.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Monday didn’t extend intraday, as the decline’s 1.0865 target remains outstanding just under Friday’s low.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Initially recovering from an overnight dip under 1266.00, Monday eventually dipped back down to the overnight lows, suggesting the bounce is stopping short of its potential to 1283.50 and resuming an attack on the lows.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s gap up above prior highs also tested 17.80 resistance that had yet to be touched. Holding it keeps alive potential to attack recent lows before a credible rally leg can begin.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Firming slightly overnight to 165-10 was reversed into negative territory Monday, testing the 164-08 level that keeps alive the bottoming pattern, let alone bounce potential to 165-30 and 166-19.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Probing fresh relative lows Monday under 50.00 still didn’t immediately attract sponsorship to extend at least a corrective leg. But a downleg remains likely so long as 50.80 is not recovered.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s break under the 3.14 pullback limit resolved in another gap down Monday that extended to new lows for the month under 2.86. Friday’s break from a two-day range suggests that Monday confirmed it, now requiring at least a third eventual lower close. The two-day range wasn’t optimal, so a new low close might be avoided — but I would still hesitate buying weakness.