Bigger Picture
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Oct 25, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Here come a lot of Housing sector data. But it’s not necessarily influential to price action, unless one is a dramatic outlier, and especially if another were to confirm it. Mario Draghi speaks at some point during the morning, and he is very reliable at influencing price action.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
FHFA House Price Index
9:00 AM ET
S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
*Dennis Lockhart Speaks
1:20 PM ET
Sunday night’s Globex link
Sunday night’s open wasted no time resuming Friday’s intraday rally. That had hit its extreme during the final hour, coming from the open’s 2123.50 low up to 2136.75. Now a surge has tested and retested 2139.50. RSIs diverged negatively on the retest, so the first hour may not be all that telling…
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Surging so aggressively Thursday morning was premature since a bottom had not signaled it was yet even forming. That impatient buying was reversed to a new low close that produced a gap down Friday, quickly nearing the next lower target at 1.0865.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing back under 1266.00 overnight was recovered into Friday’s open, and held as support through the day, without trying to resume the rally.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s narrowly ranging session showed no signs of confirming the week’s earlier surge had attracted any new sponsorship.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fresh recovery highs tested 165-02, whose recovery would help to confirm the 165-30 and 166-19 targets remain intact.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down Thursday was a little too abrupt for already launching a new downleg after having held the rally’s 51.50 target retest only one day earlier. It being premature was somewhat confirmed by Friday’s narrow range, which does help to launch a more credible downleg.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Although Thursday’s reaction to EIA ultimately held its 3.14 pullback limit, despite testing its room for noise down to 3.09-3.11, Friday’s open gapped down under Thursday’s low and trended down intraday to probe under 3.00. This is a breakout from a multi-session range, so closing lower Monday would entrench the decline and not allow a rally to form near-term. Closing Monday back above 3.14 would be the minimum to suggest a bottom may form.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Oct 24, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s two morning econ reports have limited reliability for influencing price action. But an almost steady supply of Fed speakers offer stimuli — at least for volatility. Meanwhile, quarterly earnings continue but with much less influence on overall market price action.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 AM ET
*William Dudley Speaks
9:00 AM ET
*James Bullard Speaks
9:05 AM ET
PMI Manufacturing Index Flash
9:45 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
1:30 PM ET
*Jerome Power Speaks
1:45 PM ET
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s ECB meeting was greeted after the decline’s 1.0994 objective had been met, but without having recovered to close above 1.1011 signaling a bottom forming. Surging sharply to 1.1065 was reversed down even more sharply to fresh lows at 1.0940. The next lower objective in-play is 1.0865 if Friday doesn’t reject Thursday’s break lower.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s gap up above the 1266.00 buy signal had not extended higher intraday. That didn’t necessarily preclude extending higher, and neither does Thursday’s dip back down to the 1266.00 buy signal as support. But another attack on the lows first can’t yet be ruled out.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s session-long fluctuation around prior highs had not gained any traction, stopping short of its 17.80 buy signal, Thursday’s dip isn’t necessarily bullish, but it does help to insert more “ineffectual pessimism” that is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Several days of chipping away at 164-08 resistance, and finally probing higher intraday, was probed even higher on Thursday. Holding above 164-08 allows extending the bounce to 165-30 or 166-19.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s retest of the rally’s 51.50 target had ended the day overlapping its prior test as was expected. Already gapping down to and or through 50.80 Thursday is too abrupt of a start to be confident a new downleg is now beginning. But that continues to be the likely resolution.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA report from Wednesday’s test of the 3.14 pullback limit still allowed room for noise down to 3.09-3.11. Entering the weekend back above 3.14 is the minimum requirement to maintain any near-term upside potential, without requiring a deeper pullback.