Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Spiking down to fresh lows Friday and then snapping back up only tested what had been “higher prior lows” of the consolidation that previously had launched three separate breaks lower. Its third break finally had been maintained through a close on Thursday, and although not confirmed by a lower second consecutive lower close, the break was not rejected and remains intact.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Bouncing only to 1166.00 resistance was reversed sharply back down to fresh lows, essentially testing the upper-end of the next lower objective’s 1237.00-1243.00 range.  Closing back above Thursday’s 1252.50 lows isn’t enough to prevent follow-through on Monday.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Initially bouncing Friday morning proved short-lived, although the eventual reaction down held above prior lows. The potential to 17.09 that was attacked to within a nickel Thursday was attacked to within 2 cents Friday. Back above 17.80 would put the potential to the upside in a recovery

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fulfilling all downside attractions without actually closing above the 165-30 relevant level still didn’t greet Friday’s Employment Situation report from a position of strength. The result was to probe back under prior lows down to 164-08. And not closing above 165-30 suggests that Monday will probe fresh lows, too.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s fresh high testing 50.75 was already softening when it then reacted down to the weekly Rig Count. The dip to 49/40 didn’t much threaten the 49.00 pullback limit, still targeting 51.50.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The week’s restrained optimism finally became a little unleashed by gapping up Friday and probing fresh recovery highs at 3.22. 3.12-3.15 3.28.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Two failed attempts to actually reverse deep gaps down — instead of only retracing them — were followed Thursday by a third gap down Thursday. This time without any retracement, while producing the lowest close in a week, and presumably (again) starting the next downleg.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite Wednesday having held a test of the next lower target at 1166.00, Thursday probed under the next lower objective at 1254.50. Reversing almost any initial weakness back up into positive territory Friday would be vulnerable to a short-squeeze into the weekend.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Extending down Thursday next targeted 17.09, which was tested to within 20 cents at the intraday low. No setup is capable of signaling momentum reversing up Friday, not durably, although probing fresh lows early Friday would be extremely vulnerable to a short-squeeze into the weekend.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Lower lows Thursday filled the 3-week old gap down to 165-02 that had been filled previously only overnight. That had been sufficient to launch a rally up to 170-04, but the retest would have been more bullish if Friday’s Employment Situation report were greeted from closing Thursday above 165-30.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The rally extended higher Thursday to test 50.50, likely to extend to 51.50 and potentially also to 54.65 so long as pullbacks now hold 49.00.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming overnight to 3.07 didn’t prevent an initially negative knee-jerk reaction to Thursday morning’s EIA report. But its dip to 2.97 was recovered almost entirely back to the overnight high. Pullbacks must hold 3.04 to maintain the rally’s momentum.