Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down to fresh lows Tuesday suggests that the ongoing distributive pattern is finally maximizing its influence, after weeks of choppy flat-to-lower ranging that hasn’t yet put together two consecutive lower closes under a support.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s unimpressive gap up and ranging was retraced only shallowly Tuesday, barely filling its gap back to Friday’s 1255.70 close. The impatient buying suggests that a deeper dip is needed to form a better bounce.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Dipping shallowly Tuesday stopped optimistically short of filling the gap back down to Friday’s 17.41 close. The impatient buying suggests that a deeper dip is needed to form a better bounce.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Closing Monday under 165-02 had maintained the downtrend’s momentum, at least preventing a buy signal. Perhaps the plunging stock market created a flight-to-safety that eventually produced a bounce up to 164-22, but the nearest signal at this stage of momentum reversing up would be above 165-18.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Overnight highs held the 51.50 target that had been tested Monday morning by a dime, and then already retested Monday afternoon. Breaking under the 50.80 pullback limit Tuesday now requires its immediate recovery Wednesday to maintain potential for extending this leg to 54.60. Two consecutive lower closes under 50.80would instead signal at least a deeper pullback underway.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Probing a Monday’s high overnight up to 2.31 allowed room for a deeper pullback down to 2.14 before reversing momentum down. But holding 2.20 would at least maintain the upward momentum.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Monday without Friday’s range extended down intraday to attack Friday’s lows. The inside day must be rejected without delay Tuesday to avoid extending the decline much more obviously.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s gap up only ranged narrowly within Friday’s range instead of extending higher above 1266.00, and instead of filling the gap back down to Friday’s 1255.70 close. The timing is still appropriate for some sort of rally, be it a temporary correction or a durable recovery. But even the most bullish scenario can’t dismiss the potential for one more probe of fresh lows.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Monday didn’t extend before settling into a narrow range around Friday’s 17.69 high. The gap back down to Friday’s 17.41 close should be filled before a recovery would be credible — preferably by probing a fresh low intraday and then recovering to close in positive territory.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Not recovering 165-30 Friday and only overlapping 165-02 made the decline likely to extend down Monday, which it did, probing fresh lows down to 163-21. Closing under 164-08 makes the decline likely to extend further.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Sunday night’s brief dip attacked the 49.00 pullback limit to within 15 cents before recovering to indicate a gap up Monday. The 51.50 target was probed by a dime before reacting down temporarily. The pullback limit has been raised to 50.80, which would maintain the next potential objective at 54.60.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday extended higher to fulfill its 3.28 target Monday morning. Its reaction down to 3.24 was largely recovered. But RSIs diverged negatively, suggesting that a pullback or consolidation of some sort may now begin. The rally will be able to resume so long as 3.20 holds as support.