Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Flat-to-higher narrow ranging Thursday didn’t contradict Tuesday’s confirmed breakout, which is required to produce at least an eventual third lower close.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Narrow ranging Thursday did not fulfill the deeper dip already indicated by having started the week with “ineffectual optimism.” Back above 1266.00 would be credible for extending higher intraday, but there is otherwise a pullback underway with potential down to 1236.00.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s narrow ranging still doesn’t offset the “ineffectual optimism” that had prevented the week’s initial strength from extending. Recovering 17.80 Friday would suggest a rally underway into the weekend, but there is otherwise a deeper pullback underway.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Holding 163-27 Wednesday and closing above 164-08 Thursday suggests the decline’s momentum has lapsed. Closing above 165-02 (being tested in the afternoon) would confirm, and back above 165-18 would reverse the trend back up.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Extending the pullback to 49.35 Thursday morning was recovered suddenly after the EIA report to test 50.60, still short of rejecting Wednesday’s break under the 50.80 pullback limit. Almost any initial weakness Friday would be likely to extend to fresh reaction lows.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Dipping at Thursday’s open used all but the last 2 cents of room for a pullback to 3.14 before the EIA report. Its reaction surged to test 3.36, now allowing room for a pullback to 3.31 to keep alive the rally’s momentum next targeting 3.60.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down againWednesday is the first confirmation of a break during the recent multi-week distribution pattern. At least an eventual third lower close would be required to fulfill the setup, before any recovery effort can be credible.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Two days of ineffectual optimism weakened Wednesday, but still held well above Friday’s lows, with potential to a fresh low at 1236.00.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Two days of ineffectual optimism weren’t so ineffectual as to require fresh lows. But Wednesday’s dip was too shallow itself to qualify as fulfilling the downside consequence, which is necessary before any recovery attempt would be credible.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down and probing lower to 163-19 Wednesday needs to avoid closing under 163-27 would would signal a much deeper decline underway.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The rally above its 51.50 target has yet to resume, while the 50.80 pullback limit is probed even more deeply Wednesday down to 49.90. Two lower closes would indicate that a top is forming

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s dip actually touched the 3.20 pullback limit which Tuesday’s low had only attacked. Probing any lower intraday Thursday should be recovered to close higher, which the morning’s EIA report should trigger..