Bigger Picture
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Fresh lows Sunday night at 1.0992 fulfilled the decline’s next lower objective. While closing back above 1.1011 would suggest that a bottom will begin forming, at least an eventual third lower close is still required.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s gap down was recovered too quickly to qualify as enough pessimism to offset the “ineffective optimism” early last week. No upside action Monday helps to confirm, keeping the door open to attacking or probing fresh lows.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s extremely narrow ranging suggests the pattern still requires some more concerted selling effort as part of a bottoming pattern.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Sunday night’s fresh lows down to 162-19 were recovered back above last week’s prior lows and 163-27 to try launching a corrective rally. Resistance at 164-08 must be recovered to put into play a test of 166-19.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Already having two consecutive lower closes under the rally’s 50.80 pullback limit, a rests of the rally’s 51.50 target would be likely to hold. It wasn’t tested before Monday slid a little deeper, so that now closing above 50.80 would put into play 54.60.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s dip did not hold the 2.26 pullback limit which had held Friday. Now signaling the rally’s resumption requires closing above 2.29. And the delay should be minimal to avoid a deeper corrective dip.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Oct 18, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Any reaction to the pre-open high-profile econ report would likely be duplicated by subsequent reports. Otherwise, influence on price action is still likely from quarterly earnings announcements.
*Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Treasury International Capital
4:00 PM ET
Sunday night’s Globex link
The weekend wasn’t particularly eventful. That’s not necessarily calming to that market, which has been trading choppily lower without a particular event to discount its woes. You can monitor its mood when the overnight Globex session opens at the top of the hour…
Saturday Review’s recording (for 10/15/16) …
Last week’s pattern did some real and lasting damage to the chart. There’s a path higher — there’s always a path higher — and we discuss how to recognize it in this weekend’s Saturday Review. But there’s no durable path higher, not without first neutralizing newly-created “unfinished business below.” And the process of doing that has potential to tumble deeper and deeper. Saturday Review details that unfinished business and the deeper potential.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
BAC, CMG, BREW, DUST, GDXJ, VRX
10/15/2016 09:31:48 Rod David: Starting a couple of minutes late…
10/15/2016 09:35:08 Mark Glezer: gm
10/15/2016 09:55:51 Mark Glezer: NDX was up 43+ & erased all of it
10/15/2016 09:56:33 Mark Glezer: flat open would favor downside on Mon?
10/15/2016 09:58:06 Mark Glezer: BAC
10/15/2016 09:59:09 ljr mobile: $CMG, BREW, DUST,
10/15/2016 10:00:37 Mark Glezer: maybe CMG has been going down since I haven’t been there in awhile
10/15/2016 10:01:25 Mark Glezer: :)
10/15/2016 10:03:13 Mark Glezer: VRX
10/15/2016 10:03:40 Mark Glezer: still trying to anticipate a big drop
10/15/2016 10:06:09 Mark Glezer: off its own weight?
10/15/2016 10:06:43 ljr mobile: XLF if you have time… Thx
10/15/2016 10:07:31 Mark Glezer: thx much
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s bounce was doomed to failure since Tuesday’s break had been confirmed. Friday’s gap down to probe fresh lows could fulfill the breakout’s minimum requirement with a new low close. Recovering immediately after a new low close on Fridays is unlikely without at least probing lower intraday Monday.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The week’s earlier “ineffectual optimism” had not been offset by any significant selling pressure until Friday probed fresh lows for the week. But its gap down was retraced entirely, still not much pessimism for contrarian purposes.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Attacking fresh lows for the week greeted Friday’s open, still not having suffered much consequence for the week’s earlier “ineffectual optimism.” At least some minimal selling pressure is still likely before completing a bottom.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Closing above 163-27 and overlapping 164-08 had not yet signaled the decline was ending, and Friday’s break back into their range didn’t suggest otherwise.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday morning’s bounce was inhibited by following two consecutive closes under the 50.80 pullback limit, and after having fulfilled the 51.50 target. Reacting down didn’t signal a new downleg underway, but only closing above 51.50 would reinstate the rally.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The 3.31 optimal pullback following Thursday’s breakout was probed down to 3.26, which must hold to maintain the upside momentum and potential for extending higher anyway on Monday.