Bigger Picture
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s recovery of its gap down wasn’t validated Monday, as price dipped back under 1.1265 again. While a second consecutive lower close would be helpful confirmation, an aggressive drop would be appropriate, and much better confirmation of a new downleg underway.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Opening weaker Monday to extend Friday’s reaction down extended to probe 1311.00, as no more backing-and-filling should be needed to extend to the 1296.00-1297.00 target.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s opening slide probed last week’s low to test 18.75, presumably resuming the decline targeting fresh lows under 18.45.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Recovering from Friday’s close back under the 168-22 pullback limit needed Monday’s open to gap back above it, which it did not, instead of probing lower, which it did. But probing lower was still ranging around Friday’s intraday lows, preventing momentum from reversing down.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The outstanding 49.00 target was attacked overnight to within 13 cents, but that overnight high wasn’t retested until Monday afternoon. While this fulfills the rally’s objective, it could extend so long as pullbacks now hold any test of 47.95.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s lower close had already made the next lower gap likely to be filled, which was done at 2.81. Turning positive into the close does allow a retest of Monday’s low to hold Tuesday which would form a bottom.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Oct 4, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s calendar is unremarkable, perhaps the one such day this week as focus shifts to Friday’s payrolls and the usual high-profile reports that precede it.
Jeffrey M. Lacker Speaks
8:05 AM ET
Gallup US ECI
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Saturday Review’s recording (for 10/1/16) …
I’m very sorry to report that technical issues with Anymeeting impaired this weekend’s Review. We threw in the towel after a half-hour, tried a couple more times, and then ran out of towels. The recording captured the better part of the bigger picture discussion, and a couple of questions.
Link to Saturday Review
Twice this week it seemed perfectly plausible that the market was done for. Certainly, the headlines justified the steep trajectories of the deep declines. Yet the market fought its way back up. Because it is a bull that cannot be stopped? Because it must first neutralize some unfinished business above before becoming a bear? We’ll address these questions among others, while examining some useful technical features on display this week, in this weekend’s Saturday Review….
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s confirmed break under the 1.1265 sell signal had made Thursday’s bounce up to 1.1285 likely to fail. And it did, retracing intraday and trending down sharply overnight to test 1.1190. But Friday’s big gap down has reversed right back up to Thursday’s high at 1.1290. Still testing 1.1265, the pattern remains defensive, if not impatient.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up and surging Friday attacked the upper-end of the 1329.00-1332.00 bounce limit. The limit held, and the session reversed back down sharply to fresh lows at 1316.00. More than a bounce limit, the pattern now has little if any tolerance for any more bouncing before resuming its decline.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s open gapped up and extended sharply higher to test its 19.75 sell signal, probing above its 19.35 bounce limit. They held their test, reversing price down to fill the gap back to Thursday’s 19.18 close.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Recovering into Friday’s open attacked the rally’s 170-02 to within 1 tick. But that was reversed to probe back under Thursday’s 168-09 low down to 167-30. Both dips tested the 168-22 pullback limit, whose recovery through Friday’s close would suggest the rally is ready to extend higher.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))0
An overnight dip attacking 47.00 held the 47.45 pullback limit Friday and recovered to attack Thursday’s ~48.30 high, keeping alive the 49.00 target.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Dipping even deeper ahead of Friday’s open wasn’t rejected intraday as it tested 2.89. This extended stage of the pullback must rally aggressively to avoid much deeper pullback being underway. So, every tick that isn’t rallying aggressively is essentially signaling that momentum has reversed down.