Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s bounce back above the 1.1265 sell signal after two consecutive closes under it suggests the bounce will fail. In fact, testing Monday’s “higher prior lows” up to 1.1288.did reverse back under the signal.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Dipping deeper overnight to attack 1318.50 into Thursday’s open was retraced into positive territory above 1326.00. Nevertheless, the decline’s momentum remains intact under 1329.00.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight weakness didn’t extend down and Thursday morning bounced as the decline’s momentum remains intact under 19.35.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having reacted down already Wednesday from testing the 170-02 objective, gapping down Thursday extended down slightly further to test the rally’s 168-22 pullback limit down to 168-09. Its reaction bounced back to within 4 ticks of 170-02, suggesting the recovery remains intact.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The rally extended sharply higher Thursday and attacked its 49.00 target up to 48.32. No other upside attractions are outstanding, so back under 47.45 would signal the rally was ending, and under 46.90 would signal momentum reversing down.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s weakness was contained within Wednesday’s range. Having greeted the day’s EIA.report not from an optimal position of strength, the reaction suggests that its pessimism is ineffectual. Any initial strength Friday would be credible for extending higher into the weekend.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s break back under its 1.1265 sell signal had not extended through the close, but Wednesday’s follow-through did. And the second consecutive lower close confirms that at least an eventual third lower close is outstanding.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Extending Tuesday’s steep drop to 1321.00 both confirmed the break from a multi-session range, as well as broken under 1329.00-1332.00 support. At least an eventual third lower close is required, probably as part of a larger downleg, which is targeting 1296.00-1297.00 so long as 1332.00 is not recovered.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s confirmation of Monday’s 19.75 sell signal was extended on Wednesday, fulfilling the setup’s minimum required third lower close. The decline’s momentum remains intact so long as 19.35 is not recovered.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s open was still not rejecting Tuesday’s confirmation of Monday’s breakout, making higher highs likelier sooner, rather than later, Its 170-02 was tested at Wednesday’s high. Momentum doesn’t reverse down so long as 169-06 holds as support.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Initial firming Wednesday on bullish OPEC headlines was extended to test 44.80 in reaction to the morning’s EIA report. That filled the gap back up to Monday’s close, enabling a steep reaction back down to attack Friday and Tuesday’s 44.20 lows. The retracement was recovered to 46.00 when another OPEC headline triggered a sure to 46.70, back above last week’s highs. A higher close remains outstanding, likely to test 49.00.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Wednesday retested the 2.93 “lower prior highs” that had held Friday’s lows, and which already had produced Monday’s bounce. The retest down to 2.90 seems to have held by bouncing to 2.95, which maintains the recent dip as being only a temporary pullback.