Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Chipping away at the 1.1225 sell signal was finally exploited Friday, and with a vengeance, as the opens’ gap down to 1.1225 extended sharply lower intraday to test 1.1150. A second consecutive lower close Monday would then require at least an eventual third lower close.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s bounce from testing 1212.00 support was retraced into Friday’s open, and eked lower during the day to eventually attack 1309.00. The 1296.00-1297.00 target is in-play.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Initially holding the multi-session range Friday morning eventually probed fresh relative lows, needing a second consecutive lower close Monday to confirm the prior low’s retest is likely underway.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having held a retest of Tuesday’s low Thursday, the overnight probe above the 165-20 bounce limit was maintained through Friday morning. Its recovery through the close signals a bottom having formed and probably also momentum reversing up, still needing confirmation from a second consecutive higher close.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s attempt at forming a Pivot Reversal still needed Friday’s open to gap up, which it did not, which essentially confirmed the outstanding gap and fresh lows down to 42.25 remains in-play — which Friday’s fresh lows have now attacked to within 50 cents.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s initial weakness was recovered to probe back above Thursday’s high, itself being the recovery of initially dipping ahead of the EIA report. A second consecutive higher close isn’t so much a buy signal at this stage of the pattern, as it is confirmation the uptrend targeting 3.04 remains intact. But it is also a breakout of the recent range.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday morning’s surge retested 1.1265 resistance. Again. And it held. Again. Chipping away at its resistance doesn’t yet assure breaking higher. But not yet reversing down Friday morning would make a break higher much likelier.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sliding sharply Thursday morning thoroughly tested support down to 1312.00, and reversed up sharply to attack 1324.50 resistance. It’s the new bounce limit, and reversing its test back down under 1313.00 would next target the 1296.00-1297.00 objective still outstanding.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Spiking up at Thursday’s open to 19.25 was reversed down to 18.88, but not to extend down. In fact, recovering into positive territory essentially ranged around unchanged and 19.00. Retesting prior lows should get underway before the weekend or else a bigger corrective bounce would become very likely.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Retesting Tuesday’s 164-22 low Thursday down to 164-17 didn’t extend down, but still needed to be recovered into positive territory and above 165-30 to signal that a bottom had formed.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Did Thursday form a bullish Pivot Reversal? Gapping up slightly was reversed down from 44.21 to almost fill the outstanding gap at 43.22. It was attacked to within a nickel while piercing its bar by 2 cents. Regardless, reversing back above the morning’s high attacked 44.35. Any initial strength Friday would be credible for extending sharply higher intraday. Otherwise, almost any delay would be likely at least to probe fresh lows down to 43.25 42.25.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s reversal down from its 2.98 pre-open fresh high to 2.85 extended only slightly lower to 2.83 before the EIA report triggered a recovery up to 2.95. The 3.04 target remains in-play, although a second consecutive higher close Friday would help to confirm.