Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s probe under 1.1225 reacted back up Wednesday to retest 1.1265 resistance, which had held already Sunday and Monday. A new downleg has yet to be confirmed.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probes lower after Tuesday’s close and overnight didn’t extend down, but buyers weren’t attracted Wednesday as the 1329.00-1332.00 bounce limit continued to hold.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s gap up tested the recent range’s 18.15 upper-end and spent the entire session in positive territory. But the range’s upper-end held as resistance, which is “ineffectual optimism” that should resolve down almost immediately if a bigger bounce will be avoided.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up slightly Wednesday and extending up to 166-12 held a test of the 165-30 bounce limit. Now holding a retest of Tuesday’s 164-22 low — especially if recovered to close positive territory — would form a bottom.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down to fresh lows Wednesday found support at the recovery’s original 44.20 bounce limit. Reacting up into positive territory in reaction to the morning’s EIA report was rejected by a return to lower lows testing 43.45, confirming a retest of the 43.00-43.25 prior lows remains in-play.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Probing above prior highs overnight to 2.98 before reversing down intraday into negative territory at 2.85. Now closing back above 2.94 would confirm the 3.04 objective remains in-play..

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Sunday night and Monday’s tests of 1.1265 resistance did not resolve in breaking higher Tuesday, further suggesting the eventual break lower remains likely.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight firming up to 1336.50 resolved down Tuesday to a fresh low testing 1323.50, presumably resuming the decline targeting 1296.00-1297.00 so long as bounces continue holding 1332.00 as resistance.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s modest weakness held 18.85 which is the least bit of support still needing to break lower for resuming the drop targeting a retest of prior lows.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s 30-year auction performed horribly, slicing through the 165-20 / 165-30 target to 164-22. The requirement for at least a third lower close is now fulfilled. Closing back above 165-30 would signal the drop is bottoming.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Rallying Monday from the gap down’s test of 44.88 retesting 46.50\ was reversed overnight to gap down Tuesday and pierce under Monday’s low. Closing under 45.80 signals momentum extending down.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Initially probing higher Tuesday touched last month’s 2.94 high. The four-day sequence was fulfilled by reversing back down into negative territory at 2.88. But the sequence wasn’t entirely successful, as it was recovered back up to 2.94. Regardless, the pattern’s 3.04 target remains in-play, especially so long as 2.88 holds as support.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Initially rallied Sunday night to 1.1265 resistance, but greeted Monday unchanged. Another rally intraday retested 1.1265, without signaling a resolution either way.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s break under 1234.50 extended into Monday morning to test 1323.50. Holding  1229.00-1232.00 as resistance confirms momentum is reversing down, eventually targeting 1296.00-1297.00.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s break under the 19.75 sell signal extended down Sunday night to gap down sharply Monday and test 18.80. A retest of prior lows is in-play so long as bounces now hold 18.35 as resistance.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Perhaps there was some flight-to-quality Sunday night inhibiting another drop while stocks dropped further. But bonds didn’t bounce as stocks recovered Monday. That’s probably because Friday’s second consecutive lower close already confirmed Thursday’s break under 170-00 to require at least an eventual third lower close, potentially to 165-20 / 165-30.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Sliding sharply Sunday night greeted Monday back under the 45.80 bounce objective that was put into play when 44.20 was exceeded last week, on the way up to 47.75. The morning rallied back into positive territory at 46.50. Closing under 45.80 would signal momentum reversing down to resume the decline, targeting at least a gap fill at 43.20.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Probing higher Sunday night extended sharply higher Monday morning up to 2.92. While prior highs around 3.04 remain in-play, the pattern has formed three days of a four-session sequence that makes Tuesday’s close likely to be in negative territory — which would be relevant if the morning were probing positive territory. Regardless of whether the setup were fulfilled — its inverse was not fulfilled at last week’s low — the upleg remains intact.