Bigger Picture
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Sep 13, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The 30-year auction has been moved to Tuesday from its normal Thursday timing. The change is otherwise irrelevant, except for becoming a little likelier for awhile to influence price action. And this auction is being greeted by an especially volatile pattern, having broken sharply from a lengthy sloppy, choppy range .
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*30-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET
Treasury Budget
2:00 PM ET
The Globex open.
Overnight trading is set to resume in several minutes. You can monitor it live in the chaRTroom at the link below. It’s the first time Asian markets will have a chance to factor in Friday’s plunge. Later tonight we’ll see how Europe responds…
Saturday Review’s recording (for 9/10/16) …That’s going to leave a mark.
What led to Friday’s plunge? Was it overdone? Why might it be duplicated Monday, and to what degree? What is the alternative, and what signs will tell us which scenario is playing out? These and other questions are answered in this weekend’s Saturday Review, along with many great questions posed by attendees. And as usual, my answers are designed to include useful examples of how my methodology helps the market speak honestly to you.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
FB, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL, GDXJ, WYNN, RARE, BAC, WDC, MU, VRX, CMG, TWLO.
09/10/2016 09:27:58 David B: Good Morning
09/10/2016 09:28:01 G: good morning
09/10/2016 09:28:07 Mark Glezer: gm
09/10/2016 09:31:33 ljr mobile: gm
09/10/2016 09:40:40 Mark Glezer: is there a potential for a 200 pts day Mon/Tue?
09/10/2016 09:46:30 Mark Glezer: when NDX printed new highs on Mon, CNBC reported that FANG stocks are breaking higher, do u think is being trumped by the mkt downturn?
09/10/2016 09:54:17 Mark Glezer: does Fri action suggest that a downturn, even if interjected with a bounce will likely develop very fast?
09/10/2016 09:57:43 David B: options expiration could be influential or to early in the week for it to be a factor?
09/10/2016 10:01:53 Bill G: Would a test of lower prior highs over next couple of days become a bottom and still allow for new highs?
09/10/2016 10:03:59 Mark Glezer: Carter Worth from Oppenheimer said that
09/10/2016 10:06:39 Mark Glezer: if we rally from a gap up above 2138, would u short when we get to higher prior lows?
09/10/2016 10:10:01 David B: could a lot of the selling be discounting what the market thinks the FED is going to do and if they raise then we may rally?. or is this too far out to be looking at this?
09/10/2016 10:10:29 Mark Glezer: that’s me asking, not Carter hahah
09/10/2016 10:10:41 ljr mobile: do u think this is a short term or long term trend change? weeks/months dare I say years?
09/10/2016 10:12:52 Mark Glezer: if they don;t raise we plunge, maybe after a knee-jerk reaction?
09/10/2016 10:14:12 Mark Glezer: lol
09/10/2016 10:16:57 David B: is this wasn’t a friday what we saw could we talking about a multi session decline or friday or is this not a factor here?
09/10/2016 10:21:16 Mark Glezer: Mon gap down might just invert if we don’t gap under lower prior highs?
09/10/2016 10:21:16 David B: there was talk in the market about bollinger bands being very narrow and a sharp move was going too happen. was there anything in your work was indicating this was going to happen?
09/10/2016 10:22:09 Mark Glezer: what would be the best bottoming action Mon ?
09/10/2016 10:23:21 ljr mobile: the brexit lows look a lot like that “throat” pattern last August that we hit limit down
09/10/2016 10:27:33 ljr mobile: we tested prev years low
09/10/2016 10:30:48 ljr mobile: stocks: $wynn, $rare, $cmg, twlo
09/10/2016 10:31:08 ljr mobile: no positions in any
09/10/2016 10:38:01 ljr mobile: not sure
09/10/2016 10:38:13 ljr mobile: just relative strength
09/10/2016 10:38:18 Mark Glezer: BAC
09/10/2016 10:38:32 David B: WDC,MU
09/10/2016 10:39:15 Mark Glezer: VRX – still going to zero, maybe with mkt’s help?
09/10/2016 10:47:51 Mark Glezer: can BAC exceed 17.07 target or it’s highly unlikely provided it even gets there?
09/10/2016 10:51:44 Mark Glezer: thx much
09/10/2016 10:53:52 Mark Glezer: Bill Ackman has 10% or so
09/10/2016 10:58:09 ljr mobile: thx great review today.
09/10/2016 10:58:22 Mark Glezer: thx much
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. Click here to enter.
Yesterday’s plunge did not come as a total surprise. Last week’s Bigger Picture review (done before that Friday’s close) had noted the cracks appearing in the relationships among the three major indexes. That was all the more glaring for it appearing when markets had gapped up sharply on monthly Payrolls.
That gap up had not improved intraday. Neither had the holiday weekend, nor the Tuesday return. Then Wednesday morning formed a bearish Pivot Reversal that told us to expect a bearish context through Friday morning.
Okay, maybe Friday was a little surprising — Thursday was a narrow inside day, and Friday gapped down sharply. But the opening level did point sharply lower. And meeting its lower objective by lunch allowed plenty of time to essentially double the morning slide, back down to levels last seen two months ago.
Monday could duplicate Friday’s action. We’ll discuss the possible scenarios and their signs at this morning’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies and setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request. Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET — See you there!
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s key reversal from probing above 1.1300 was immediately productive, trending down overnight to gap down Friday, and to extend down lower intraday. Closing under 1.1225 confirms momentum has reversed down.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s open was still struggling to let go of the 1343.00 sell signal that was being overlapped at Thursday’s close. Selling pressure was relentless and eventually succeeded to drop more decisively intraday, testing 1334.50 whose break would confirm momentum has reversed down.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s break under the 19.75 sell signal had extended down overnight, which persisted through Friday morning to test 19.35, whose break would help to confirm that momentum has reversed down.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The very productive sell signal that triggered Thursday under 170-00 was extended down sharply overnight after holding a test of the 168-22 bounce limit. Gapping down and trending lower tested 167-28. The second consecutive lower close confirms a breakout that now requires at least an eventual third lower close — potentially to 165-20 / 165-30 — before a recovery would be credible.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s test of 47.55 resistance reacted down sharply overnight, and Friday’s gap down to its 46.80 pullback limit extended lower throughout the morning to attack the 45.80 sell signal. Its break is likely so long as bounces now hold tests of 46.55.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Already probing only slightly higher overnight, Friday’s session didn’t so much close higher as much as maintain the firming up to 2.82. Not an optimal second consecutive higher close, so not optimal confirmation of Thursday’s breakout from the four-day sequence preceding it.