Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s retest of Friday’s 1.1215 spike high had held, but was still likely to test 1.1300 before reversing back down. And 1.1300 was probed Thursday up to 1.1330 in reaction to ECB news, before reversing back down into negative territory under 1.1255. That only filled the gap back to Wednesday’s close, but back under 1.1225 should trigger a much deeper drop.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
.Simply closing negative Wednesday had signaled the bounce had ended. Closing under 1343.00 would signal momentum reversing down. Presumably, the decline targeting 1296.00-1297.00 has been reinstated, albeit not necessarily in a straight, uninterrupted path.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday morning resumed sliding gradually to break under the 19.85 pullback limit that was still being tested at Wednesday’s close, and then to extend under the 19.75 sell signal.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
There was no bullish reason to dip any deeper Thursday after Wednesday’s false break above 171-02 had already filled the gap back down to Tuesday’s 170-21 close. But Friday’s open gapped down to and through the 170-00 sell signal and extended down sharply to 168-12, proving that support had been chipped away. Holding 168-22 as resistance would allow this leg to extend down to 167-28.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s post-close surge to 45.80 resistance could have served by proxy for retesting Sunday night’s 46.53 high, but it was thoroughly retested overnight anyway. And that greeted Thursday morning’s delayed EIA report, which pushed price much higher to test 47.55. Closing back under 46.15 would start to signal momentum reversing down

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
A couple of factors had suggested the 4th-day reaction of the four-day sequence was only delayed, and that Thursday would behave bullishly to compensate. In fact, the open gapped up above 2.71 and extended intraday to 2.82, needing only to close above 2.74 to signal momentum reversing up.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday morning’s high will likely hold its retest by Tuesday’s surge, but probably not without first probing higher intraday to test 1.1300. Wednesday didn’t probe positive territory at all, but the setup remains intact.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing slightly higher after Tuesday’s close didn’t use all available room up to 1361.00, and closing Wednesday back in negative territory helps to maintain the bounce’s label as being only corrective. Back under 1343.00 would signal the trend reversing back down.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Already dipping into Wednesday’s open extended down to test its 19.85 pullback limit. Closing under 19.75 would signal the trend reversing back down to retest recent lows.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Wednesday to the sloppy, choppy range’s 171-02 buy signal and probing above it was nevertheless reversed to fill the gap back down to Tuesday’s 170-21 close. Closing negative would make the setup bearish, reversing momentum down under 170-00. Otherwise, it may be a warning shot, clearing the path for a more productive surge that puts into play 176-10.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Not rejecting the 44.20 bounce limit’s repeated tests had left the door open to retesting Sunday night’s 46.53 high, or to at least attacking it up to 45.80. Gapping up Wednesday did extend higher, and closing Thursday back under 44.20 would signal the decline has resumed. EIA is reporting this week on Thursday due to the holiday.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The four-day sequence greeting Wednesday’s session did not fulfill its likely recovery from probing negative territory intraday. The setup did play-out overnight — recovering from 2.69 up to 2.74 — but repeating it intraday fell to 2.66. Closing back above 2.71 would reverse momentum back up, and avoid yet another lower close. But Thursday’s EIA report is otherwise being greeted from a position of weakness.