Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Retracing all of Friday’s initial spike up before the weekend, back down to 1.1155, was not itself a new sell signal, and it didn’t prevent Tuesday from surging back up to the spike’s 1.1260 peak. But closing back under 1.1175 is needed to reinstate the downtrend.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Tuesday to 1336.50 extended sharply higher intraday to 1354.00-1357.00, extending the decline’s bigger detour which had been signaled Thursday by closing above 1312.70-1315.30. But Tuesday’s extension wasn’t necessary, since Friday had closed back under 1329.00. Closing back under 1343.00 would reinstate the 1296.00-1297.00 objective. Closing first above 1362.00 would suggest an even bigger rally underway.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Stopping short Friday of filling its gap back up to 19.48 didn’t prevent extending higher during the holiday to gap up to 19.65 and extend through the prior outstanding gap at 19.85, testing 20.20. Friday’s breakout above 19.00 was confirmed already during the holiday, so Tuesday’s extension fulfilled it. Closing back under 19.75 would signal that the bounce had ended.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s reaction to the Employment Situation had filled the gap back down to 168-28, although that wasn’t required. Its reaction up extended Tuesday to test the 170-02 buy signal as resistance. Anything in between continues to be the unpredictable sloppy and choppy ranging.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Testing 46.50 during the Labor Day holiday was retraced entirely back into negative territory Tuesady under 44.00. But the 44.20 bounce limit was still being tested into the close, so the decline has no excuse to be delayed.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday didn’t confirm Thursday’s break under 2.82, but that didn’t prevent Tuesday from gapping down to test 2.71. This sequence is the first three of a four-session setup. The fourth session would also fail to confirm Tuesday’s break. This is only useful if Wednesday were to gap down or probe lower, which would be likely to recover.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The favorable knee-jerk reaction to Friday’s payrolls report was retraced immediately, and reversed into negative territory to confirm the bounce from Wednesday’s close was likely only a temporary correction..

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Closing Thursday above 1315.70 had indicated a much bigger detour on the way to targets under 1300.00. Friday’s spike up in reaction to payrolls touched 1334.00 before reversing back down. Just closing under 1332.00 maintains the decline, and under 1329.00 suggests it is extending back down without further delay.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Spiking up on Friday’s payrolls extended to nearly fill one outstanding gap above. Often gaps are filled in pairs, so actually filling the 19.45 gap would likely extend to 19.85. Not filling the first gap leaves the decline vulnerable to resuming, at least to probe fresh lows inn tandem with Gold so a durable bottom could form.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s spike up above 171-00 reacted down sharply to 168-25, filling the week-old gap below. It didn’t require being filled, so closing under it would open the floodgates to selling. It is otherwise one last chance to form a base that launches a recovery.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up on Friday’s payrolls report immediately tested the 43.90-44.20 bounce limit, probing it intraday to almost fill a gap outstanding at 44.60. Regardless, at least an eventual third lower close remains outstanding from Wednesday’s confirmed breakout.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s drop back under the 2.72 sell signal didn’t extend down Friday. Optimally, the dip would be rejected altogether by recovering sharply if 2.72 were holding as support. Closing only slightly lower Friday would be only tepid confirmation of Thursday’s break.