Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s gap down held at Tuesday’s opening low, before bouncing sharply into positive territory. A second consecutive higher close Friday would signal momentum reversing up. Otherwise, lower lows remain likely.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down to test a fresh low Thursday at 1305.50 was recovered well into positive territory, testing bounce limits at 1312.30 and 1315.70. Closing any higher would signal a much bigger detour on the way down to 1296.00-1297.00.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Silver’s recent relative outperformace against Gold helped it to avoid a fresh low Thursday, but its bounce up to 19.00 remained under the 19.15 prior week’s high that must hold to maintain near-term likelihood to retest overnight lows.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down sharply Thursday and extending to 169-06 was reversed back above Wednesday’s high to 170-27, as the sloppy, choppy range persisted ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report. Closing above 170-02 could greet the news from a position of strength, but there otherwise remains no attractive setup.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Extending down sharply Thursday tested the next lower attraction at 43.45. The second consecutive lower close under a multi-session range now requires there eventually be at least a third lower close. Bounces should meanwhile hold any test of 43.90-44.20.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position not of weakness didn’t prevent reacting down to retest the 2.82 sell signal, and probing it deeper than Tuesday’s test down to 2.78. A second consecutive lower close would confirm momentum reversing down. Otherwise, closing back above 2.88 would again be credible for extending higher.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s shallow gap down bounced quickly back into Tuesday’s range, and soon tested the 1.1175 sell signal that Tuesday had broken under. Holding it as resistance didn’t undermine the break’s momentum, still targeting fresh lows.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sliding sharply again Wednesday to 1307.00 keeps alive the decline’s momentum and its 1296.00-1297.00 target, which is in-play so long as bounces were to hold 1316.00 as ressitance.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Avoiding a probe of lower lows Wednesday without reversing up doesn’t negate the outstanding requirement for at least an eventual third lower close. Holding up while Gold slides sharply may find heavy rotation into Gold when its downside target is met, which would enable Silver to retest Sunday night’s low.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
 Rolling coverage forward to Dec, at about a 1-14 discount to Sep… Wednesday’s choppy, sloppy ranging at least ranged more narrowly, just around Tuesday’s range, but still short of its 171-02 buy signal.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Two days of ineffectual optimism that had tried avoiding a break under 46.60 were greeted by Wednesday’s gap down that extended sharply lower in reaction to EIA. The pattern next targets 41.45 on a second consecutive lower close Thursday.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s test of the 2.82 sell signal was already suspicious. Wednesday’s immediate bounce back up to what had been the 2.88 pullback limit would confirm by closing above it, which would greet Thursday’s EIA from a position of strength.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Tuesday under the 1.1175 sell signal that had held a test Monday is also confirmation to the ongoing break that was triggered under 1.1295 and targeting 1.0870-1.0980.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down and trending down intraday fulfilled the outstanding requirement for at least a third lower close, but it didn’t create a bottom that would otherwise suggest the 1296.00-1297.00 target doesn’t remain in-play.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up slightly Tuesday, and spending the entire session in positive territory without extending higher is “ineffectual pessimism,” which suggest the decline’s momentum remains intact. Anyway, at least an eventual third lower close remains outstanding, including a more thorough touch of the decline’s 18.35 target so long as 18.85 isn’t recovered.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Closing above 171-22 Monday was of course followed immediately by gapping down Tuesday back under 171-22. Not substantially, and not with any predictive value. But the range continues to behave erratically.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down a little Tuesday eventually extended down to touch 46.60 support, but didn’t yet break under to trigger a new downleg.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Rolling coverage forward to Oct, trading at a 3-cent premium to Sep… Despite having held the 2.88 pullback limit Monday, a deeper pullback Tuesday tested the 2.82 sell signal whose break would suggest a substantial detour from producing the required higher close that remains outstanding.