Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gaping up Friday wasn’t likely to extend, but it did fill the gap outstanding above and neutralize its attraction. Yellen’s flurry of headlines triggered a steep reaction down to fresh lows for the week, another breakout attempt that would be confirmed by a second consecutive lower close on Monday.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s gap up tried to form an Island of Thursday’s range. But that was doomed since Thursday’s lower close had confirmed Wednesday’s breakout. The gap back up to Tuesday’s 1346.50 close was filled to within 50 cents and reversed down into negative territory under 1324.00. An eventual third lower close remains outstanding.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s gap up extended sharply higher and back down again amid Yellen’s headlines. Negative territory was never probed, let alone a negative close, although an eventual third lower close remains outstanding.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wide swings reacted to Friday’s Yellen headlines, first probing under 171-22 to 171-06. Spiking up attacked 173-04 to within 1 tick before reversing down again to retest 171-06..

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s rally tested the last relative high above 48.35, which must be recovered to put into play fresh highs. Otherwise, so long as its resistance holds, the Descending Triangle now supported at 46.60 continues to develop, .

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Room for a pullback to 2.79 wasn’t fully utilized by Friday’s shallow gap down. Reversing up extended to fresh highs. Since Thursday had already fulfilled the minimum requirement created by Tuesday’s confirmed breakout, extending higher immediately anyway suggests the rally will extend, presumably to fill the gap outstanding above at 2.98.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

SPECIAL NOTE: Today’s issue is published early, and there is no post-market Wrap, due to travel. Thank you!

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Thursday back above the 1.1295 sell signal that had triggered Wednesday was recaptured by noon. Maintaining its break through the close would keep alive the reversal, and closing under Wednesday’s low would confirm.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down Thursday under all prior lows created “unfinished business below” at its open that would prevent any interim recovery from gaining traction until that opening gap is retested from above. Meanwhile, a second consecutive lower close Thursday would confirm Wednesday’s break out requiring an eventual third lower close. And the current leg is likely targeting 1296.00-1297.00.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday morning had not extended lower so much as briefly pierced under Wednesday’s lows. Closing lower would confirm Wednesday’s breakout. Not rejecting the break would keep alive this leg’s 18.35 target.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing lower to 171-10 Thursday morning reacted back up above 171-22, which must maintain its break to put into play fresh lows under 171-00. A recovery must begin by closing above 172-16, and then also confirmed above 173-04.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday morning showed no greater interest in breaking under Tuesday’s 46.60 low than did Wednesday. It also showed no greater interest in bouncing off of it. Any lower close would be likely to extend down, still needing confirmation from a second consecutive lower close.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was greeted from a position of strength. Its knee-jerk reaction up was maintained into the noon hour. Closing in positive territory would fulfill the minimum required third higher close created by Tuesday’s confirmed breakout.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Wednesday under the 1.1295 sell signal now needs a second consecutive lower close on Thursday under 1.1255 to confirm the corrective bounce has ended. Closing under 1.1170 would signal new lows in-play.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s gap down to recent lows plunged sharply lower to fulfill the 1329.00-1332.00 target. Closing back above 1336.50 would signal the break was false, likely at least to fill the gap back up to Tuesday’s 1345.00 close. Closing under 1329.00 would instead target 1296.00-1297.00.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s shallow bounce was reversed early Tuesday to test the 18.75-18.85 target area’s lower-end. Its break puts into play 18.35, which was tested Wednesday down to 18.55.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday morning’s dip attacked the 171-22 sell signal to within 6 ticks before bouncing back above the 172-16 buy signal. Closing above it would be credible for launching a recovery.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s bounce up to 48.00 resistance reacted Wednesday by gapping back down to 47.45 and extending to Tuesday morning’s 46.60 low. Closing any lower would reinstate the reversal..

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s break above 2.70 extended higher Wednesday’s to test 2.82. The second consecutive higher close confirms the breakout, now requiring at least an eventual third higher close.