Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Not yet exploiting the failed breakout Monday suggested the gap back to Thursday’s close would be filled before another downdraft could be credible. Tuesday’s gap up didn’t extend, and only ranged narrowly sideways.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Reversing back down after Tuesday to fulfill the 1329.00-1332.00 target area cannot be relied upon to recover, since Tuesday filled the gap back up to Friday’s close. Having neutralized its attraction above through the close, a break lower can extend down.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming at Tuesday’s open helped to confirm Monday’s touch of the 18.75-18.85 target area’s upper-end was relevant. Firming only slightly at Tuesday’s open suggested the target area’s lower-end would be tested, too.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Pulling back overnight to 171-22 before opening back at the 172-16 buy signal made its breakout more credible. Its attempt attacked 173-04 resistance before dipping back down to 172-16 as support. Closing back under 171-22 would put into play fresh lows.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Extending down overnight increased the potential for a second consecutive lower close Tuesday, which would confirm Monday’s break back under 47.45 had reversed momentum down. Headlines triggered a surge back up to 48.00 resistance — not necessarily confirming Monday’s break, but not rejecting it, either.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s unlikely gap up to retest 2.70 resistance was followed the less likely extension higher overnight. Trending up Tuesday tested 2.75, which puts into play filling the gap back up to 2.98 — assuming no reversal down Wednesday.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s gap down an narrowly ranging session didn’t accomplish anything other than what it prevented from being accomplished — Thursday’s breakout wasn’t confirmed. Monday’s price action essentially duplicated Friday’s, so reversing momentum back down isn’t yet assured.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s wide ranging had held its bounce limit, so Monday’s gap down under Friday’s lows was capable of extending down. It only ranged narrowly sideways under Friday’s lows, remaining vulnerable to extending down to the 1329-1332 target.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down sharply Friday had all but required extending down next to 18.75-18.85. Gapping down sharply Monday probed the target area’s upper-end, and also confirmed Friday’s breakout from a multi-session range, requiring at least an eventual third lower close.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Monday wasn’t the optimal recovery path from Friday’s probe of fresh lows, despite that probe not gaining traction through the close. But not gaining traction through the close is what enabled an immediate recovery to be credible, at all. Quickly recovering 171-26 helped to extend higher to test the 172-16 buy signal, which had held its test through Monday’s noon hour.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Rolling forward Monday from Sep to Oct, at a 60-cent premium, was accompanied by gapping down back into the 47.45-48.00 bounce target that had been probed into the weekend. Its lower end was attacked intraday, but must still be confirmed to consider the week-long rally as having ended.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s gap down under Thursday’s 2.61 low was a delayed reaction to not immediately rejecting the knee-jerk reaction to Thursday’s EIA report. The likely consequence was to fill the gap below down to 2.55 or lower. Closing back above Thursday’s 2.70 high could invalidate the downside, so it is interesting that Friday’s gap up into Thursday’s range touched 2.70. It’s recovery would still be bullish, but meanwhile the pattern remains likelier to produce fresh lows.