Bigger Picture
Sunday night’s Globex chaRTroom link
Globex has opened… flat. That’s not surprising since no influential geopolitical events developed during the weekend. The proximity to last Monday’s high, and the bullish WedEX, may be more influential than anything else. I’ll annotate any patterns that appear and post comments as needed.
Saturday Review’s recording (for 8/20/16)… So close, and yet so far.
Last Monday’s new high seems so far, having printed a week ago. But it’s actually very close, perhaps a strong morning away. That feature speaks as much to the ongoing rally’s strength, as to its likely near-term resolution. Interpreting the variety of patterns and behaviors is this weekend’s initial focus.
Meanwhile, we’re in the middle of a bullish WedEX, and Friday was right in-line. How that should impact Monday morning, and why, is discussed in detail. So is the comparison among the three major market indexes as a way to gauge the stability or fragility of big money sentiment. The Labor Day holiday weekend’s proximity and its effect on price action is also discussed.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
VRX, CS, MU, BABA, MS, BAC, C, GDXJ
08/20/2016 09:31:29 Mark Glezer: gm
08/20/2016 09:31:31 G: audio good
08/20/2016 09:57:31 Bill G: What is the expectation following an active vs a passive bullish Wedex?
08/20/2016 10:04:54 Mark Glezer: downturn should be obvious by Tue afternoon if it happens next week?
08/20/2016 10:04:58 Bill G: thanks
08/20/2016 10:07:30 c: wedex- love it
08/20/2016 10:13:38 Mark Glezer: VRX, CS, MS, BAC, C
08/20/2016 10:14:15 David B: MU,BABA
08/20/2016 10:17:13 Mark Glezer: can still short for a long term?
08/20/2016 10:34:02 Mark Glezer: do u still see BAC getting to 17?
08/20/2016 10:34:51 Mark Glezer: thx much
08/20/2016 10:36:51 Mark Glezer: does your expectation of a move higher in a few financials plays into a liklihood of a extention higher in ES albeit temporary?
08/20/2016 10:37:17 Mark Glezer: play
08/20/2016 10:40:12 Mark Glezer: thx
08/20/2016 10:40:23 David B: thanks
08/20/2016 10:40:25 c: TKS
Saturday Review Link
Except for Monday’s gap up and probe above all prior highs, this week’s price action was contained entirely within the prior week’s range. Calm before the storm? If the market wants to get an upleg or downleg out of the way before Labor Day, then it will need to start soon.
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review (the last until after Labor Day). After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Friday only back to Tuesday and Wednesday’s highs around 1.1330 didn’t reverse momentum down. But it did prevent a second consecutive higher close from confirming Thursday’s breakout. And that keeps the door open to reversing momentum down and reinstating the decline targeting a retest of Brexit lows.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping back down under 1348.00 Friday once again defended against this wide. sloppy, choppy range from breaking higher, maintaining potential for fresh lows at 1329.00-1332.00.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Already having fulfilled the 19.65 target at recent lows didn’t prevent probing fresh lows overnight down to 19.22 and gapping down Friday to test 19.30 intraday. Almost any lower close could send the pattern down to 18.80 or 18.40.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Friday under 171-26 all but signaled the recent intraday tests of its resistance had held, and that new lows are in-play. All but signaled. Closing back above the prior week’s low after probing under it intraday does maintain potential for recovering 172-16 to launch another rally leg .
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up Thursday and trending through the 46.80-47.60 bounce target to test 48.40 was not rejected Friday. Neither did it extend higher, as the session only ranged narrowly sideways. That leaves open a window for its abrupt rejection back under 46.80. Any shallower dip into the 46.80-47.60 range would still be able to recover and resume the rally.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Friday to Thursday’s 2.61 low was a delayed reaction to having maintained the favorable knee-jerk reaction to its EIA report. Probing lower intraday to 2.58 helped to confirm the gap back down to 2.55 would likely be filled, and also probed to new lows at or under 2.50 before another credible rally could begin. Only closing above 2.70 can suggest otherwise.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Aug 22 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The week’s econ calendar starts off slowly… and stays that way. Except for a lot of Housing Sector data, the high-profile and influential stuff comes much later in the week.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET