Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s late spike back up to Tuesday’s opening high extend higher Thursday morning, attacking 1.1375 resistance and qualifying as a breakout from a multi-session range. A second consecutive higher close would require a third eventual higher close, so a bearish scenario must reverse down sharply Friday.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Reacting up after Wednesday’s close to FOMC Minutes had retested 1355.50 resistance. It was still being tested Thursday morning despite 1361.50 overnight. The attraction below to 1329.00-1332.00 isn’t invalidated, but being positioned closer to 1367.50 resistance makes its recovery easier..

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Shallow overnight strength still had not filled the gap back up to Tuesday’s close. No rally leg has been launched, but meanwhile all unfinished business below is neutralized.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having recovered only to test 171-26 Wednesday, Thursday’s narrow ranging around it needed to close above 172-16 to suggest a recovery is underway. Not yet rallying out of Friday’s open would become substantially more vulnerable to resuming Tuesday’s decline.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh highs Thursday trended through the 46.80-47.60 bounce target and 40 cents above 48.00. This does not change whether an abrupt and aggressive reaction down is the appropriate path to starting a new downleg. But closing higher Friday would make the current rally likely to extend.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness wasn’t going to prevent an initially favorable knee-jerk reaction up. But that reaction would be likely to fail, yet it did not. The recent range’s 2.63 upper-end was probed up to 2.70. A second consecutive higher close Friday would confirm Thursday’s breakout. Meanwhile, back under 2.61 would target filling last week’s gap back down to 2.55.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
.Narrow ranging Wednesday morning waited out the afternoon’s FOMC Minutes. Its reaction spiked back up to Tuesday’s high. Still monitoring the pattern for new parameters.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down Wednesday to 1348.00 rejected Tuesday ‘s close above the 1352.50 bounce limit. Little follow-through preceded the FOMC Minutes. A blip-down to 1340.50 reacted sharply to fill the gap back up to Tuesday’s 1355.00 close. The 1332.00 objective remains outstanding, and would be put back in play under 1348.00.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s open gapped down although the overnight lows had already tested the pullback’s 19.65 minimum objective. Retesting it intraday was followed by a blip-down to 19.37 in reaction to the FOMC Minutes. Its recovery back up to 19.80 was still under Tuesday’s close, so not credible for reversing momentum up.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s lower lows didn’t extend down Wednesday morning. Avoiding a second consecutive lower close Wednesday allows another rally attempt. The reaction to FOMC Minutes barely managed to test 171-26 resistance, whose recovery is the minimum to start anticipating another rally effort.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Barely nicking the lower-end of the 46.80-47.60 bounce target Wednesday had already reacted down intraday, but not deeply enough or aggressively enough to suggest momentum is yet reversing down.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Probing a couple of cents above the current trading range’s 2.63 highs failed to extend higher, and was retraced back into the range. Closing there, with the recent gap outstanding below, would greet Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness likely to react down on the news.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Spiking up sharply Tuesday removes the 1.1175 sell signal’s near-term influence. Although its slight break Friday wasn’t confirmed Monday, that sequence had not formed a durable base to launch a new rally leg. And gapping up doesn’t make it any more credible. But rejecting the rally immediately isn’t likely, even in the most bearish scenario, so I’m monitoring one more session before identifying new parameters.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up sharply Tuesday back to the range’s upper-end wasn’t any likelier to extend than was Friday’s opening spike up. In fact, almost the entire gap was retraced before noon. But the 1352.70 bounce limit was probed again into the afternoon, and should hold as resistance for optimal confirmation that 1332.00 remain in-play.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up sharply Tuesday was retraced entirely through the morning and into negative territory. That didn’t extend down, but 19.90 held as resistance to prevent sellers buyers from gaining traction.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Surging at Tuesday’s open to touch Monday’s high was literally as much strength as possible without actually reversing the trend back up. It held, and reversed down under 171-22 to test 171-02. Closing lower again Wednesday would make a buy signal unlikely to trigger before new lows were probed

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s breakout was on-track for producing its eventual higher close, which is required after being confirmed Monday. The likely target area at 46.80-47.60 was attacked to within a dime, so probing it Wednesday and closing negative would be a likely top.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Narrow ranging Tuesday morning did not resemble the initial strength that would have been likely to extend sharply higher through the day. That setup is no longer relevant, although gapping up above the 2.62 prior high would at least suggest a bottom has formed.