Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Spiking up Friday to a fresh high was ambitious, especially after Thursday’s open and close each had broken under the 1.1175 pullback limit to end upside momentum. Indeed, the spike up was soon being retraced. Closing back under 1.1175 could now serve as a sell signal, initially targeting 1.1105.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Spiking up $17 Friday morning had originated from an inappropriate spot. Despite probing a fresh high, it was likely to fail. Not necessarily the same day, although it did, consolidating at 1357.00 until an $18 plunge tested 1338.50. The 1332.00 objective remains in-play.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s spike up was premature for the recovery that still targets a retest of the 21.15 post-Brexit high. Its reaction down intraday was sudden, steep and substantial, probing under almost all prior lows down to 19.69, and stopping optimistically short of yet filling the gap back to Tuesday’s opening gap down.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s 61.8% retracement of the last upleg was proved to be only a correction by gapping up and extending to a fresh high at 173-30. Its reaction down tested support at what had been the 173-04 and 172-26 buy signals triggered by the last upleg. Closing above at least one would keep alive the recovery’s momentum.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s rally back up to the 43.35 bounce limit was still overlapping it at the close. Friday barely delayed extending higher, although not aggressively. Recovering it through the close would suggest the decline had ended for awhile, subject to confirmation from a second consecutive higher close. Otherwise, back under pivotal uptrending support that now coincides around 42.50 would target new lows.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Friday within Thursday’s range doesn’t require filling the gap back to Thursday’s close. Fluctuating around Thursday’s high up to 2.62 doesn’t require extending higher. But almost any early strength Monday would be credible for extending higher intraday.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s gap up had quickly paused and consolidated at 1.1180 support. Closing any lower would signal the bounce had ended, and Thursday’s gap down under it extended lower intraday. Closing also under 1.1105 would confirm a new downleg underway.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s weakness only touched Tuesday’s low, but rejected the open’s gap up, which is in-line with Wednesday’s gap up being only temporary. A retest of Tuesday’s low would enable a durable recovery to form.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s probe under Wednesday’s low testing 20.05 support need only close lower on Friday to confirm at least an attack on the week’s lows — not necessarily back down to the actual 19.60 low — before beginning a durable recovery.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Closing Wednesday simultaneously above both 172-26 and 173-04 buy signals didn’t prevent Thursday’s slight gap down from extending sharply lower intraday. The recent recovery was retraced precisely 61.8% to 171-25, which at least avoids reversing momentum down. Almost any initial strength Friday would be likely to extend higher intraday, and vulnerable to extending to fresh highs for the week.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Initially extending down Thursday morning to a fresh pullback low was reversed well before noon back up to probe the 43.35 bounce limit by 50 cents. Its test had launched the first reaction down, so closing above it at least once is required to suggest its reaction down has ended.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness had made an initially favorable knee-jerk reaction up likely to fail. An initially negative knee-jerk reaction down to 2.53 was recovered into positive territory up to 2.60, but it was retraced back down to 2.53. RSIs diverged positively, so bottoming action would be credible.