Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Wednesday to test 1.1205 was not extended higher, and its consolidation was supported by 1.1180 whose break would signal momentum reversing down.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Wednesday to 1363.50 was unable to overcome the attraction to “unfinished business below” to at least retest Tuesday’s opening gap down, so the morning trended back down to 1348.50. The reaction down remains intact so long as bounces hold 1353.00 as resistance.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s gap up to test 20.50 was reversed back down to 20.15. Extending back under 20.05 would signal the gap back down to Tuesday’s 19.63 open is in-play .

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s recovery up to 172-26 resistance extended immediately Wednesday through its 173-04 confirmation on the way to attacking 174-00. The 176-10 objective is in-play.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Re-touching 43.35 resistance Wednesday morning was reversed back down to a fresh relative low testing 42.00 as support. Closing any lower would resume the decline targeting fresh lows at 36.60.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The decline didn’t slow Wednesday, quickly breaking under last month’s 2.60 low and extending down another nickel. Thursday’s EIA report is not being greeted from a position of strength, so an initially favorable knee-jerk reaction up would be likely to fail.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s narrowly ranging session tried resolving up soon after Tuesday’s open. But the setup’s first break was likely to be false, and testing 1.1140 resistance will signal momentum reversing back down under 1.1105.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down again Tuesday attacked Sunday night’s lows at 1336.00 before bouncing back into positive territory at 1348.50. Back under 1341.00 would resume the decline to produce one more lower close before a rally can be credible.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sunday night’s 19.50 low was attacked at Tuesday’s opening gap down, and then reversed quickly to only fluctuate around unchanged. The gap down will want to be retested before a durable rally attempt could be credible.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Not yet exploiting recoveries from probing fresh lows Sunday night and pre-open Monday, the delay could be considered pessimism, and therefore potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. But only for so long. Tuesday exploited that potential sooner, rather than later, breaking through 171-22 and extending to test 172-26 resistance.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s resistance test at 43.35 had reacted down a little into the close, and then a little lower overnight to 42.50. Firming into Tuesday’s open was retraced back to overnight lows. The reversal should become obvious with little delay (API is post-close Tuesday and EIA is Wednesday morning), or else closing above 43.35 would extend the detour up higher.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s break back under 2.80 extended Monday to gap down and test last week’s 2.72 low. The close narrowly failed to recover 2.77, which Tuesday’s open exploited by gapping down to last week’s lows then attacking last month’s lows down to 2.62. That will have to recover from probing lower in order to greet Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s narrow ranging session didn’t try rejecting last week’s drop into the weekend, so suddenly rallying Tuesday would be suspicious and likely to fail.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Lower lows overnight greeted had recovered much before Monday’s open, but not all as ranging intraday around Friday’s 1342.00 low threatened a second consecutive lower close that to confirm Friday’s break lower and to require an eventual third lower close.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sharply lower lows overnight attacking 19.50 were recovered before Monday’s open, letting intraday action fluctuate very narrowly around Friday’s close without confirming its break, and without requiring an eventual third lower close.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s drop extended down overnight and through Monday’s open down to 170-21, but ended the morning bouncing back up to 171-22 resistance. The afternoon was spent there, too, as the relevant level behaved much more like a magnet, and much less like an inflection point. But its recovery is still able to identify a recovery underway, or not.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up and extending higher through Monday’s open eventually up to test the 43.30 bounce limit. There is little room or time to further delay reversing down to resume the decline next targeting 36.60.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Not immediately recovering 2.80 at Monday’s open suggested a different bottom must form by first testing 2.71 Monday and then closing back in positive territory above 2.77. The dip held 2.71 and recovered up to 2.77, but not closing above it. So, closing above 2.80 is now required to resume the rally.