Bigger Picture
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Aug 9, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The slow news week continues, as Tuesday’s calendar also has no high-profile or influential econ report scheduled..
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
Productivity and Costs
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Sunday night’s chaRTroom link
Globex opened at 6:00 pm ET. Not much has happened, other than ranging flat-to-higher, and piercing Friday’s high by 1 tick up to 2178.75.
You can monitor price action at the link below. I’ll be checking in occasionally. See you there…
Saturday Review’s recording (for 8/6/16) …
It’s a learning session. It’s a forecast. It’s a learning session that’s also a forecast. It’s two Saturday Reviews in one!
This week’s session looks back at several setups that helped to identify how market moves would resolve. Many of those same setups are either repeating, or have further resolution, which then help us to identify how the current situation is likely to resolve… and the consequences to a less likely resolution.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
AMZN, X, XOM, POT, PAAS, BAC, C, CYH, SSYS, GDXJ, IONS, TRTC, VEEV
08/06/2016 09:26:59 Casjf: gm
08/06/2016 09:31:30 Mark Glezer: gm
08/06/2016 09:31:38 Casjf: yes
08/06/2016 09:32:44 David b: good morning
08/06/2016 10:12:33 David b: AMZN,X
08/06/2016 10:13:38 David b: BAC,C
08/06/2016 10:13:52 Casjf: XON
08/06/2016 10:15:51 MK: POT
08/06/2016 10:16:06 MK: PAAS
08/06/2016 10:16:56 MK: CYH
08/06/2016 10:20:06 MK: SSYS
08/06/2016 10:21:34 Casjf: yes
08/06/2016 10:23:41 MK: VEEV (Short)
08/06/2016 10:27:22 MK: can’t bring myself to buy POT
08/06/2016 10:27:26 MK: but i really want to
08/06/2016 10:27:41 MK: haha also remember where i live
08/06/2016 10:27:43 MK: not a problem
08/06/2016 10:27:44 MK: =)
08/06/2016 10:28:50 Casjf: IONS, TRTC
08/06/2016 10:29:16 MK: I sold my PAAS long yesterday
08/06/2016 10:30:26 MK: what about pullback?
08/06/2016 10:30:32 MK: 17.70?
08/06/2016 10:30:54 MK: oh wow
08/06/2016 10:30:55 MK: ok
08/06/2016 10:34:26 Mark Glezer: can BAC eventually recover to 30s?
08/06/2016 10:36:37 Mark Glezer: k
08/06/2016 10:37:23 MK: bunch of smart people long this stock
08/06/2016 10:37:33 MK: since 2016
08/06/2016 10:39:31 MK: basically during 1Q
08/06/2016 11:00:23 Mark Glezer: thx
08/06/2016 11:00:33 Casjf: Ty!
08/06/2016 11:00:35 David b: thanks
08/06/2016 11:01:02 charlie: tks
Saturday Review Link
A new trend high close on a Friday! There are specific consequences to that. We’ll discuss them, and more, at this weekend’s Saturday Review. Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The week’s rejection of Monday’s false break higher was extended down sharply Friday morning to 1.1065. Its reaction up to test 1.1120 still held negative territory, suggesting that any near-term bounce would fail.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Reacting down sharply lower on Friday’s payrolls report once again avoided the 1375.50 target, and probed under Wednesday night’s test of the 1355.50 support by $10. Closing above 1353.00 would resume the rally, at least to test 1375.50. But closing any lower Monday would suggest the 1375.50 target won’t be tested before developing a more substantial decline.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down sharply Friday in reaction to Friday’s payrolls fell to 19.75. Resuming the rally requires closing above 20.20. No deeper backing-and-filling would be required first, but bottoming here should start recovering no later than Tuesday morning would.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s reaction down to payrolls filled the gap back down to Wednesday’s close and dipped a little deeper to also test 171-22 by several ticks. Assuming this is the range’s lower-end, then Monday should not delay rallying back up to or toward 172-26/173-04 where a new upleg can still trigger.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s weakness barely attacked the 40.65-40.80 sell signal, let alone touch it. The decline is not required to resume immediately, but any higher highs intraday should be retraced into the close.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Friday to 2.80 and extending lower to retest 2.77 support must still hold to keep alive the same recovery pattern that was trying to form earlier this week. Closing above 2.85 would signal the rally to fresh highs underway.