Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The decline resumed Friday, trending down to the lowest levels since first recovering from the Brexit reaction, still targeting a retest of the Brexit reaction’s 1.0945 lows.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Closing above 1325.50 and 1329.00 Thursday didn’t prevent gapping back down under both Friday. If not recovered intraday, then the gap back up to Thursday’s close becomes an attraction above. But its recovery is needed before being assured that the pullback’s bottom has ended.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping back down Friday under 18.75 ranged around it intraday instead of extending lower. Closing back above 18.85 and higher would signal the pullback had ended, and a retest of the highs was underway.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Holding the 171-22 buy signal Thursday didn’t prevent probing above it overnight to 172-09. Its reaction down into Friday’s open bounced off of 170-22 to probe above the overnight high. Closing above 173-04 would confirm a recovery leg underway targeting 176-10.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The long-standing 43.80 target was met.Friday morning, even before the afternoon’s bearish rig count data. Closing above 44.25 would suggest the decline would start bottoming. Closing under 43.65 would signal the decline was extending

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Two consecutive sessions of holding the maximum 2.65 pullback limit were squeezed Friday by the weekend’s impending illiquidity, surging to attack the 2.80 buy signal. Recovering it and 2.85 would signal and confirm the 2.98 prior high’s retest was underway, and likely to be probed.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The 4-day sequence through Wednesday had suggested another fresh low coming Thursday under Wednesday’s 1.1017 low. Surging Thursday up to 1.1085 in reaction to ECB’s policy statement was reversed to fresh lows at 1.1004, still targeting a retest of Brexit’s 1.0945 prior low.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s gap up was retraced enough to fill the gap back down to Wednesday’s close before reversing up above the 1325.50 buy signal to test 1330.00, which recovering through the close could complete a bottom..

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Bouncing Thursday still needs to recover above 18.75-18.85 to signal momentum is reversing up.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Lower lows Thursday morning finally tested the lower-end of the pullback’s 170-16/171-08 target area. Its fuller test wasn’t required, and it was probed under 170-00, but that allowed lowering the buy signal to 171-22 — which was attacked into the afternoon.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Still holding the 46.05 bounce limit overnight (45.25 basis Aug) was reversed by late-morning Thursday to test Wednesday’s 45.00 opening gap, still targeting 43.80 (43.00 basis Aug).

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday morning’s EIA report after testing the 2.65 pullback limit overnight was still a position of weakness, but at least it could be an oversold position of weakness. The news didn’t push price lower, but a recovery hasn’t yet emerged.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The fourth of a 4-day sequence Wednesday fulfilled its likeliest scenario of not confirming the third day’s break lower. The fourth day’s overnight low formed optimistically short of touching a prior low. This suggests the sequence will repeat again, with another break lower for 1-2 days.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Days of teasing at the 1333.00 buy signal was resolved by gapping down sharply under last Thursday’s 1320.50 lows and attacking 1313.00 intraday. The gap down was neutralized so that closing above 1322.00 can signal that a bottom is forming, and closing above 1330.00 can launch an upleg.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Two days of probing under the 20.05 pullback limit weren’t rejected, and instead gapped down to fresh lows at 19.45-19.60. Back above 19.75-19.85 could trigger an aggressive rally, but there is meanwhile potential for extending down to 18.90-19.00.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
One more dip under 171-08 Wednesday should suffice for this initial downleg to retrace 173-04 and then back up to 176-10 to complete the topping pattern.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down to fresh lows at Wednesday’s open only attacked the 42.65-43.45 target area down to 43.70 before bouncing in reaction to the morning’s EIA report. The gap open requires being retested, and should be probed into the target area.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Wednesday to Friday’s 2.67 low probed lower to attack the 2.65 pullback potential. Greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness under all recent prior lows has little room or time for absorbing an initially negative knee-jerk reaction down.