Bigger Picture
Globex chaRTroom link
The tragedy in Orlando suggests tonight’s 6:00PM et Globex open will be anxious. Europe’s opens may contain the most substantial reaction to pro-Brexit sentiment surging in the polls. Not much longer after that, soon after the U.S. open, we’ll see whether the bearish sentiment has been expended, or if it attracts new sponsorship.
Saturday Review’s recording (for 6/11/16) …
Last week started obviously, quickly producing a rally as was expected. Trying to extend that rally inappropriately led to its expected reversal. And the character of its reversal suggests that a turning point may be here. Is topping process yet complete? We discuss this and more during this weekend’s Saturday Review.
GDX and GDXJ stock charts are reviewed toward the session’s end.
06/11/2016 09:29:15 sm: check check
06/11/2016 09:32:07 Mark Glezer: gm
06/11/2016 09:56:36 Bill G: Rod, are you alright, you seem distracted? Maybe it’s me
06/11/2016 09:57:06 Bill G: usually the case
06/11/2016 10:01:44 sm: What potential do you think still exists for the market to make another challenge on the all-time highs?
06/11/2016 10:06:00 sm: December’s high
06/11/2016 10:06:42 sm: ok
06/11/2016 10:07:09 sm: Yeah, either way we completed the requried test of the highs.
06/11/2016 10:08:01 Bill G: Do you expect lower before attacking the May 2015 high?
06/11/2016 10:09:04 Bill G: If it ever happens
06/11/2016 10:11:04 sm: The decline in Aug was considered an incomplete satisfaction of the 2015 topping pattern…if a decline commences from the current area, would you consider that to be a part of that effort?
06/11/2016 10:11:34 sm: Or an altogether new decline, not necessarily tied to 2015?
06/11/2016 10:19:13 sm: Sorry for taking the conversation back to the big picture (takes me a few minutes to digest your comments)…Since an decline from current levels would be a separate effort (different sponsorhip) from that which orignated in 2015, but we have now an even larger context of distribution which includes the past eight month PLUS that which occured in 2015, would you anticipate even lower levels than would have been seen if the decline had been more successful initally and had actually made its way into the 1700s that were possible at that time?
06/11/2016 10:21:17 sm: :)
06/11/2016 10:21:41 Josey: will the brix strenghten gold?
06/11/2016 10:27:57 sm: thx
06/11/2016 10:28:19 Josey: if it goes through.
06/11/2016 10:32:11 Josey: TY
06/11/2016 10:32:23 Mark Glezer: thx
Saturday Review Link
Did Friday’s initial capitulation fulfill Tuesday and Wednesday’s topping, and Thursday’s warning shot? Or, is Friday’s drop telling everyone the trend is reversing down? We’ll discuss that, and more, less than two hours from now.
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Despite Thursday’s gap down having held the 1.1315 pullback limit, lower lows were probed Friday morning, extending down to 1.1245. Avoiding a second consecutive lower confirming close Monday would maintain the likelihood for retesting Wednesday’s highs.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday morning’s rally filled the last outstanding gap at 1277.00 up to 1281.00, still needing to hold 1268.50 to maintain momentum next having potential up to 1312.00.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Extending higher Friday morning to attack 17.40 kept in-play potential for the next higher objective at 17.60.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Falling stocks generated a flight-to-safety that pushed through 168-00 to gap up Friday and probe higher highs. An intraday dip held 168-00 as support to maintain the uptrend’s momentum.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Probing the 50.15 sell signal overnight extended down Friday morning, testing the original 49.00 sell signal by the afternoon. Its break, too, would help to confirm the capitulative stage has arrived, so long as 50.15 isn’t recovered.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s powerful knee-jerk reaction up on the EIA report didn’t extend any higher Friday. But its pullback was shallow, with room down to 2.51 or 2.47 to help refuel the rally.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jun 13, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: No influential or high-profile reports are scheduled for Monday. It gets busy after this.
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET