Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Fulfilling theminimum third higher close Wednesday required by last week’s confirmed breakout, Thursday’s gap down has potential for ending the corrective rally. But holding 1.1315 as support keeps alive potential for extending to probe above 1.1540.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Upside momentum remained intact after Wednesday fulfilled the 1260.00 next higher objective since 1256.80 held as support. Extending sharply higher Thursday came within $2-3 of filling the gap back up to 1277.00, raising the pullback limit to 1268.50.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Not extending the Tuesday night’s surge much beyond Wednesday’s open didn’t undermine the rally’s momentum, which extended sharply higher Thursday to test 17.35. Pullbacks must now hold 17.19 to maintain the rally’s momentum.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Rallying overnight extended to test the next higher potential at 168-00. Closing back under 166-12 would signal the fresh highs were a false breakout that is snapping back down. An immediate downleg is unlikely to be durable without first bouncing to fill the gap back up to Thursday’s 167-17 close.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh highs overnight fulfilled the 51.45 objective, already reacting down into Thursday’s open. Raising the sell signal to 50.15 now requires any probe under it to almost collapse for optimal confirmation that the original capitulation pattern is unfolding.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was greeted from a position of strength that at least made a knee-jerk reaction down likely to recover, but that was unnecessary since the knee-jerk reaction was up, sharply. Now pullbacks should hold any test of 2.47 to maintain the rally’s momentum, next targeting 2.70 and 2.89.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Wednesday attempted to fulfill the minimum third higher close required by Friday’s confirmed breakout. Gapping up makes an immediate reversal down unlikely.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite Monday’s less-than optimal confirmation of Friday’s breakout, Tuesday’s test of the 1236.50 pullback limit extended sharply higher overnight. The 1260.00 target was met at Wednesday’s opening gap up, and probed. Upside momentum remains intact so long as pullbacks hold 1256.50 as support.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Barely filling the gap Tuesday back to Monday’s close didn’t prevent extending sharply higher overnight. Surging through the 16.60 buy signal Wednesday extended higher through the morning, next targeting resistance at a gap back to 17.15.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Retesting 167-00 Wednesday morning was unlikely to extend since the interim pullback was relatively shallow and had optimistically recovered quickly. Reversing down would be triggered by closing back under 166-12.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh highs overnight held up through the morning, attacking the 51.45 objective up to 51.35. Reversing down immediately would leave a gap outstanding that requires being filled, but would at least confirm this area is resistance.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Not first pulling back to 2.40 before rallying made Wednesday’s probe of fresh highs at 2.50 more difficult to extend. EIA is still being greeted from a position of strength, although a pullback would still be helpful. A knee-jerk reaction down must hold 2.35 to avoid reversing momentum down.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down slightly Tuesday ranged narrowly within the prior two sessions’ range. The confirmed breakout requires at least an eventual third higher close, which is in-play so long as 1.1310 holds as support.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s second consecutive higher close above Friday’s surge was not optimal confirmation since all of the session’s legs overlapped Friday’s highs. But gapping down Tuesday bounced upon attacking the 1236.50 pullback limit, filling the gap back up to Monday’s 1247.00 close. Now 1236.50 becomes a sell signal.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping back down Tuesday was recovered to attack Monday’s test of 16.50 resistance. Last week’s Island Reversal pattern must still be retested at the lows. Closing first above 16.60 would signal a bigger rally underway first.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday night’s pullback came within 4 of ticks of the 165-16 pullback limit before rallying Tuesday morning to attack Friday morning’s 166-22 high. Retesting the 167-00 high is likely before a durable decline begins, but closing under 165-16 would signal a downleg underway already.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up Tuesday on news once again ignored the bigger distributive pattern forming that had held three consecutive tests of its 49.00 sell signal. It also ignored Monday’s “ineffectual optimism.” Not already reversing down Tuesday evening or at Wednesday’s open would be likely to test a fresh high at 51.45.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The fourth session of a 4-day alternating setup Tuesday was unlikely to maintain its probe of fresh highs. Beginning the session by gapping down would form a “pivot reversal” setup after rejecting fresh highs, although closing action was still overlapping Monday’s close.