Bigger Picture
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Jun 8, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s Jobs Opening report offers the first chance since Friday to compare its payrolls report to other data. So, it often influences price action. Meanwhile, although Crude Oil is no longer matching the market tick-for-tick, a knee-jerk reaction to reports is still likely.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
Quarterly Services Survey
10:00 AM ET
*EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday eked out a slightly higher high intraday to threaten confirming that Friday’s surge had reversed momentum up, requiring at least an eventual third higher close with potential to 1.1510. An interim dip — whether or not corrective — would be signaled back under 1.1290.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Choppily eking out a slightly higher high intraday Monday threatened confirming that Friday’s surge had reversed momentum up, which would require at least an eventual third higher close having potential to 1260.00. An interim dip — whether or not corrective — would be signaled back under 1236.50.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up a little Monday held 16.50 resistance, and still avoided the 16.60 buy signal which would otherwise suggest a bigger corrective bounce underway before retesting last week’s Island pattern at the lows.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Closing Friday above the long-standing 166-12 target had not put into play higher objectives, while intraday action formed an Ascending Triangle. Room for noise above it up to 167-00 was tested Sunday night before reacting down Monday to 165-29, and likely also to test 165-16.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Surging ahead of Monday’s open only attacked the original 49.95 objective to within a nickel before weakening through the morning back to last week’s “lower prior highs.” Gapping up and trading exclusively in positive territory without maintaining a probe above prior highs is “ineffectual optimism” that often resolves down without delay.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Leaving Friday’s gap up outstanding had not reversed down sustainably into negative territory, keeping the door open to extending the rally, which was done by Monday’s probe of fresh highs.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jun 7, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: No high-profile or infuential econ reports are scheduled for Tuesday. It’s actually not a very busy week in this regard, but Tuesday is the least relevant.
Productivity and Costs
8:30 AM ET
Gallup US ECI
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET
Treasury STRIPS
3:00 PM ET
Tonight’s chaRTroom link
Friday’s pre-open reaction to payrolls was a 14-point plunge. It extended through the open to a 23-point drop from overnight highs. Much of it was recovered through the post-open rally.
Will the recovery extend to fresh highs, or has it only refueled sellers for another downleg? The answer may be obvious tomorrow. Perhaps sooner — you can monitor Sunday night’s Globex open at 6pm ET:
Daily Spot…
fA daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Chipping away previously at the 1.1205 bounce limit proved useful in Friday’s reaction to the Employment Situation report. Surging through it tested the two-week old consolidation’s upper-end at 1.1350. Back under 1.1315 would signal at least an attack on 1.1205 to prevent a more substantial multi-session corrective rally.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Surging through Thursday’s 1220.00 high in reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report extended to test 1246.00. Back under 1231.00 would signal the surge was not gaining momentum, and under 1225.50 would signal momentum reversing down to retest Sunday night’s lows.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Friday from the consolidation around 16.00 forms an Island reversal pattern that requires being retested. Reversing down into that retest can begin at any time if 16.60 isn’t recovered — and Friday’s surge didn’t even touch 16.50.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report surged to fresh highs testing the 166-12 target up to 166-23. Its consolidation tried resolving up but only momentarily pierced a fresh high.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Without almost literally exploding higher, the ongoing distribution around 49.00 remains likely to capitulate down. A credible signal would already trend down sharply before the close. Friday’s reaction down didn’t fall very far, but gapping down Monday could compensate for the delay.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Higher highs before Friday’s open created a gap up that was reversed back under Thursday’s 2.40 close intraday. Thursday’s close fulfilled the minimum requirement of Tuesday’s confirmed breakout, so extending higher immediately would help to suggest the recovery’s momentum remains intact. Still testing 2.40 through the close at least doesn’t reject the rally’s momentum.