Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
ECB’s policy statement Thursday triggered volatility that probed back above the 1.1205 bounce limit. Closing above it would launch a sizable rally, even if only a correction. Meanwhile, Sunday night’s low can still be retested down to 1.1055.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite originating from a slightly higher low that retested Tuesday’s 1210.50 low, the bounce into Thursday’s open failed to violate the ongoing downtrend of lower highs. If Wednesday’s high doesn’t hold as resistance, then the bounce has additional room up to 1220.00 before no longer being likely to retest Sunday night’s low into the 1190‘s.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gravitating back up to the 16.00 attraction Thursday helped to solidify the congestion there and up to 16.15 that should continue to prevent a new durable downleg from beginning.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Retracing much of Wednesday’s intraday rally didn’t matter since its 163-05 buy signal remained triggered, which was proved by extending sharply higher Thursday. Greeting Friday’s Employment Situation report from th position of strength of a confirmed breakout doesn’t prevent an initially negative knee-jerk reaction down, but it does make a reaction down likely to be only temporary before extending to fresh highs targeting 166-12.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s recovery back up to its 49.00 sell signal after gapping down under it was essentially repeated Thursday amid heavy focus on OPEC meeting. The gap down was relatively higher, as was the reaction back up to 49.00. Still, negating the capitulative topping pattern all but requires almost literally exploding higher without much further delay.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA report from the position of strength of a confirmed breakout could have reacted down momentarily anyway, but didn’t. Extending higher without delay has already produced the eventual third higher close required by the confirmed breakout. This setup has no unfinished business above, so a durable rally is very dependent upon extending higher Friday, too.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up a little doesn’t yet prevent retesting Sunday night’s low down to 1.1055. But closing above 1.1205 would signal at least a substantial multi-session bounce underway.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The ongoing series of lower lows and lower highs remained intact following Tuesday’s bounce. Dipping under Tuesday’s 1210.50 low makes likely at least a retest of Sunday night’s ~1202.00 lows.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Ranging narrowly at Tuesday’s test of 16.00 appears to be forming an Island, although that pattern isn’t likely at this stage.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The stunning rejection of Tuesday’s probe under the 162-04 sell signal to rally back up to the original 163-05 buy signal needed a correction before extending higher. Dipping to Tuesday night’s dip to 162-25 support reacted up back into positive territory at Wednesday’s open and extended sharply higher intraday. It was retraced to its signal, but closing higher and confirming would target 166-14.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The capitulative reversal of the Complex Triangle’s false break became obvious by Wednesday’s gap down under the 49.00 sell signal. Extending down to 47.75 didn’t prevent bouncing back up to the sell signal. A second consecutive lower close Thursday would confirm the minimum objective in-play to probe under the Triangle’s 47.25 low.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Wednesday and extending higher intraday need only close higher to confirm Tuesday’s break above 2.18 and 2.24 has finally sealed a bottom.