Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Fresh lows during the US holiday weren’t repeated Tuesday, as the session ranged narrowly sideways. Bottoming potential is increasing, but must still be triggered above 1.1205. And meanwhile a retest of Monday’s lows is possible.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Extending down during the US holiday could have been a second consecutive lower close confirming Friday’s close under the decline’s target that had held through Thursday’s close. Tuesday’s steep rally suggests otherwise, but doesn’t yet qualify for a buy signal.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Tuesday to the holiday’s lows testing 16.00 broke away from the ranging around 16.50, which should not be confirmed by a second consecutive lower close if any near-term recovery remains plausible.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Tuesday to retest the 163-16/163-16 pullback limit found no support to inhibit a plunge back to prior lows at 163-03. But the leg was retraced entirely, and reversed into positive territory to retest the original 164-17 buy signal. It’s too late to trigger that, but almost any follow-through Wednesday would be credible for extending higher to at least test the 164-26 new buy signal.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Avoiding a close under the 49.00 sell signal last week had created potential for retesting the 49.95 prior target. Its retest Tuesday was reversed back into negative territory to test the 49.00 sell signal. Its break would target a probe under 47.25.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Two consecutive sessions chipping away at the 2.18 buy signal into the weekend greeted the new week gapping up to the 2.24 confirmation and extending sharply higher intraday to test 2.30. Closing higher Wednesday would seal a bottom.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Having held its test Thursday of the 1.1205 bounce limit, Friday’s dip back to the lows can now form a bottom if held, which would be signaled by probing again back above 1.1205. Not immediately rejecting the low’s retest would resume the decline without delay, next targeting 1.1055.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s new lows down to 1209.50 only recovered to 1213.50 which fulfilled the eventual lower close required by the week’s earlier confirmed breakout. A second consecutive lower close Monday would put into play 1190.00. Otherwise, the pattern is now free to form a bottom, so long as not initiated by gapping up.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Dropping Friday to the range’s ~16.25 lower-end is still in the orbit of 16.50 which keeps alive the bottoming potential.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s narrow overlapping of the 164-17 buy signal didn’t resolve up Friday, as price dipped back in the range toward the 163-16/163-22 pullback limit that has been thoroughly tested already.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down Friday under the 49.00 sell signal bounced to test the 49.55 pullback limit that Thursday’s close was still testing. If momentum is reversing down, it’s not very decisive. But the burden of proof is on the rally to resume, or else capitulation by a new downleg should be obvious within hours..

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s continued testing of the 2.18 buy signal didn’t resolve, requiring 2.24 to be recovered before having any confidence in a new upleg underway.