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Bigger Picture – Page 358 – If, Then… Market Timing

Bigger Picture

Daily Spot…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Two days of consolidating Thursday’s breakout finally resolved by gapping down Wednesday, still targeting the gap outstanding from 1.1245 and probably also fresh lows so long as bounces now hold 1.1330.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down Wednesday only fluctuated around the 1271.50 sell signal, whose break through the close would signal a drop underway to 1241.00 instead of a rally to 1312.50.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s gap down attacked 17.90 and ranged flat-to-higher in negative territory, still targeting a pullback to 16.75 if not also to 16.50.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Resistance at the 166-06 buy signal had held Monday and reacted down a little deeper Tuesday, launching a slide Wednesday. Thursday’s consolidation at the 165-00 pullback limit was broken on the way down to 164-00. Closing any lower would target 163-07 and possibly 162-23.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Already firming to fresh highs before Wednesday’s EIA report, a knee-jerk reaction down was recovered back up to fresh highs attacking 49.00. The pullback limit is now 47.90, with near-term upside potential to 50.80.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up and ranging narrowly Tuesday had not confirmed Monday’s breakout back to the lows, but the gap back to Monday’s 2.03 was filled by. Wednesday’s gap down. The session ranged at fresh lows to and through fresh lows fulfilled it, but did not signal any impending recovery.

Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu May 19, 2016

A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.

Highlights: Thursday’s pre-open Philly Fed is the only regional survey with a track record of influencing price action. And its reaction would likely be duplicated by the post-open LEI.

Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET

*Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
8:30 AM ET

Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 AM ET

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET

*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET

EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET

Fed speaker
10:30 AM ET

10-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET

Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET

Money Supply
4:30 PM ET

Daily Spot…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s dip back down toward Friday’s prior low didn’t resume the decline, but neither did it extend Monday’s rally that would have undermined the decline’s lower objective.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
An unusually narrow intraday range Tuesday was bounced between the 1271.50-1287.20 buy and sell signals, without closing beyond either to signal extending in that direction.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Very narrow ranging Tuesday prevented following-through on either Monday morning’s surge or on its afternoon reaction. Consolidating under 17.50 keeps alive the attraction below down to 16.75.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Bouncing Tuesday to test the 166-06 buy signal was held as resistance, while still likely to be triggered and to probe prior highs.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Upside potential remained alive so long as pullbacks were to hold 46.85 as support. Fresh highs Monday night testing 48.40 were retraced intraday Tuesday to within a dime. Now closing under 46.85 would signal momentum reversing down.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Tuesday and holding up prevented a second consecutive session from confirming Monday’s breakout back to the lows. Retesting Monday’s range any less aggressively than gapping down to and through it would more likely recover to at least test the 2.11 buy signal.

Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed May 18, 2016

A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.

Highlights: Volatility tends to become inhibited ahead of Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC Minutes release. Its reaction can be muted if there are no surprises. However, confirming an aversion hiking rates might be as influential as any language that suggests it is not being rejected.

MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET

Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
10:00 AM ET

*EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET

*FOMC Minutes
2:00 PM ET

WedEX Indicator
4:00 PM ET