Bigger Picture
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s breakout below a multi-session range would have been confirmed Monday by a second consecutive lower close, but the pullback objective below at 1.1245 remains in-play regardless.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Extreme volatility continued with Sunday night’s rally from Friday’s 1274.50 close to probe the 1282.70 buy signal to attack 1290.50. But, wait, there’s more. Monday morning’s post-open plunge fell back to within a few dimes of Friday’s 1274.50 close, preventing the buy signal from triggering.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Rallying sharply Sunday night stopped short of touching 17.50 whose recovery would likely launch a new upleg. Reversing down attacked Friday’s 17.13 close to keep alive the 16.75 attraction below.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing fresh highs overnight came within 1 tick of filling the gap back to April’s high close at at 166-30. Having Neutralizing the attraction enabled an intraday pullback to 165-18, which shouldn’t weaken much further or for much longer if the 167-26 objective remains intact .
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fulfilling the outstanding objective for a new high close Thursday was not reversed by Friday’s inside day, keeping alive the attraction to 47.25 which was met into Monday’s open and probed up to 47.85. Closing above or below 46.80-46.85 would either maintain the upside momentum or else begin topping.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s tests of 2.08 support was probed Sunday night to gap down Monday and retest prior lows around 2.03. Closing above 2.11 would now launch a new rally leg.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue May 17, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Any reaction to Tuesday’s pre-open CPI is likely to be duplicated by reactions to the morning’s later econ reports. The two Fed speakers are capable of triggering at least a reaction. Fed presidents Lockhart Williams are supposedly being interviewed by Politico at some point intraday.
Neel Kashkari Speaks
MON 7:00 PM ET
*Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET
Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
E-Commerce Retail Sales
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*John Williams Speaks
12:00 PM ET
*Robert Kaplan Speaks
1:15 PM ET
Sunday night’s Globex link
Monitor overnight price action in the chaRTroom when the Globex session opens at 6pm ET. In case you’ve missed it, here’s the link to Saturday Review for details of what hints it might give.
Saturday Review’s recording (for 5/14/16) … Just visiting?
Returning back to last Friday’s lows this Friday may have been one last tag-up at third base before heading to home. i.e. Retracing, rejecting and reversing Friday’s dip without delay would very likely launch the next rally leg to fresh highs. Well, some delay is possible while maintaining a path to recovery, but probably not without compartmentalizing any further dip…
This weekend’s Saturday Review discusses the above situation, and also describes their consequences. We also spent some time interpreting the recent relative performances among S&Ps, the Dow and NDX.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
AAPL, CRUS, NXPI, GDX, ERII, ADI, NKE, LLL, AMD, SIVB, SFLY, FB
05/14/2016 09:30:36 smm: check
05/14/2016 09:31:31 Mark Glezer: gm
05/14/2016 09:55:49 Mk: gotta leave early so CRUS NXPI ADI NKE LLL AMD SIVB SFLY
05/14/2016 09:56:16 Mk: and FB
05/14/2016 09:58:25 Bill G: op ex
05/14/2016 09:59:24 smm: Broader market: What is your interpretation of the Dow being weaker in the context of where the market is currently?
05/14/2016 10:00:02 smm: (still within the orbit of all time highs)
05/14/2016 10:06:02 smm: – Throughout 2015 we were looking for Dow relative strength (vs NQ strength that had been seen for a long time) to portend future market declines.
05/14/2016 10:09:23 smm: We were watching for the sign of Dow relative strength to confirm expected market weakness
05/14/2016 10:09:40 smm: right
05/14/2016 10:09:58 smm: Dow relative strength would be a confirming sign
05/14/2016 10:10:45 smm: – – anyway, your comments so far on this point are helpful enough. Dont want to get stuck here.
05/14/2016 10:11:11 smm: The NQs were strong all throughout 2015
05/14/2016 10:11:17 smm: (and prior)
05/14/2016 10:11:32 Bill G: With some bullish div in nq, would a rally in es be greater in nq’s
05/14/2016 10:11:47 smm: One sign of the top rolling over was Dow relative strength
05/14/2016 10:11:59 smm: and NQ weakness
05/14/2016 10:12:50 smm: Yeah, thats where we started to see the change
05/14/2016 10:14:49 smm: Was just wondering how significant Dow relative weakness is. Using the earlier logic, one might conclude that there is not a search for cover in the Dow stocks
05/14/2016 10:16:11 smm: ok thx
05/14/2016 10:17:14 Bill G: an nq rally may be largly a bounce
05/14/2016 10:17:20 Bill G: in aapl
Replacing Friday’s Wrap… “other markets” video
The video of Friday’s post-close market Wrap is irrecoverable, so I have redone its other markets coverage. Thanks for your patience, and enjoy the weekend!