Bigger Picture
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue May 10, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s payrolls report was very influential to price action. The subsequent JOLTS report tends to be influential, too. No other high-profile report is due Tuesday.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
chaRTroom link to monitor the Globex session
Markets had closed before being able to react to Friday’s news that the Saudi oil minister was replaced. It’s being viewed as bearish for oil prices, but we’ll soon see how much the market cares.
Possibly more influential to the markets — at least, in astro- finance circles — is the new moon cycle that began Friday. This is called a super-moon, being at its closest point to earth. Giving it even greater significance is the coincidental timing of a rare passing by Mars between earth and the sun.
Apparently, the alignment is a sign of the end times. So, be sure your positions are hedged accordingly, in case the markets have not already discounted it. Monitor that in the chaRTroom when Globex opens at 6pm ET.
Saturday Review’s recording (for 5/7/16) … Opportunity’s knocking, gently.
Friday’s pre-open and post-open lows tested and held the ongoing decline’s next lower objectives. Reacting back up into the close stopped short of signaling the decline’s momentum had ended, let alone that momentum is reversing up. Monday’s open could still do that by proxy. And if it doesn’t…
We discussed relevant levels for either outcome during this weekend’s Saturday Review.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
CACO, TSLA, ULTA, GROW, GOOGL, NUGT, SWFT, URI, CRUS, AXP, PODD
05/07/2016 09:31:17 David B: Good Morning
05/07/2016 09:53:32 sm: slope cut in half?
05/07/2016 09:53:36 MK: ULTA
05/07/2016 09:53:49 sm: o
05/07/2016 09:53:50 sm: k
05/07/2016 09:53:59 MK: GROW
05/07/2016 09:54:06 MK: SWFT
05/07/2016 09:54:11 MK: URI
05/07/2016 09:54:13 MK: CRUS
05/07/2016 09:54:22 tom: GOOGL,NUGT
05/07/2016 09:55:13 MK: yes
05/07/2016 10:01:25 MK: AXP
05/07/2016 10:14:25 MK: wow should have bought NUGT rather than my actual stocks
05/07/2016 10:17:51 tom: ok thx
05/07/2016 10:26:20 MK: that good enough for a top?
05/07/2016 10:28:49 MK: ok thanks
05/07/2016 10:29:29 MK: OK
05/07/2016 10:29:30 MK: sounds good
05/07/2016 10:29:33 MK: have a good weekend
05/07/2016 10:29:47 MK: oops
05/07/2016 10:29:47 MK: yes
05/07/2016 10:29:49 MK: AXP
05/07/2016 10:29:50 MK: thanks
05/07/2016 10:29:55 MK: i’m short
05/07/2016 10:30:03 MK: ok
05/07/2016 10:30:41 Josey: PODD
05/07/2016 10:30:50 MK: thanks again
05/07/2016 10:31:18 MK: oh i have anohter
05/07/2016 10:31:20 MK: SRCL
05/07/2016 10:32:10 MK: JOSEY is that a long or a short?
05/07/2016 10:34:53 Josey: yes
05/07/2016 10:35:06 Josey: Long MK
05/07/2016 10:35:15 MK: have a good one
Saturday Review Link
Did the ongoing decline just end Friday? Its 2035.00 and 2030.00 objectives were neutralized, and the afternoon rallied well into positive territory. What action would tell us Monday morning or even Sunday night that a new upleg is underway? What are the consequences otherwise?
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for those answers and more at this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Spiking up Friday in reaction the morning’s payrolls number held a test of the 1.1485 sell signal that had triggered Thursday. A second consecutive lower close would be that much more bearish, than just to confirm Thursday’s breakout.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Second time was a charm for triggering the 1282.70 buy signal that was reinstated since fresh lows were probed after Wednesday’s gap up had failed. Fresh highs targeting 1313.50 remain in-play.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s reaction to the morning’s payrolls report was a test of 17.50 resistance, whose recovery through the close would suggest the pullback had ended — although closing above 17.60 would be optimal for reinstating the 18.80 target.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The knee-jerk reaction to Friday’s payrolls report spiked up to 166-16 before reacting back down to 165-00 support. Holding it would maintain this leg’s potential for filling the gap back up to 166-30 and extending to 167-26.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Early weakness reacted up temporarily through the 44.75 buy signal to 44.35, before dipping back under the signal. At least a deeper pullback was avoided. But triggering the buy signal would help to maintain the near-term potential for producing the required new high close.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s negative reaction to the morning’s EIA report did fill one outstanding gap below at 2.07, and Friday’s early follow-through attacked the 2.03 gap’s bar down to within 1 penny. Back above 2.14 would now signal momentum reversing up.