Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Holding the 1.1485 sell signal’s test Wednesday could have been exploited by retesting the 1.1600 target, but Thursday’s open gapped down and extended under 1.1415 support.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Closing back above 1282.70 Wednesday would have signaled momentum reversing up, but Thursday’s gap up above it still needed to extend higher through the close. Instead, it was retraced to probe under Wednesday’s low attacking 1270.00. Not immediately recovering 1282.70 could extend down to 1260.00.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping back up above the 17.50 pullback limit Thursday was not maintained after having failed to hold it Wednesday. It was reversed deeply enough only to fill the gap back to Wednesday’s close, which held, undermining the attempt to extend down.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s choppy ranging had avoided rejecting Tuesday’s gap up and post-open surge, essentially reconfirming the 165-06 target remained in-play. Thursday resumed the rally and fulfilled the target. The recovery could extend, so long as 164-28 holds as support instead of its break signaling momentum reversing down.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up Thursday well above the 44.50-44.75 resistance that had held Wednesday would have been credible for extending higher and fulfilling the outstanding requirement for at least one more higher close. But post-open action slid back down to 44.00, filling the gap back to Wednesday’s late surge.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Thursday only made even likelier a knee-jerk reaction down after the morning’s EIA report So far, only the gap back down to Tuesday’s close has been retraced, but at least a test of 2.03 remains likely.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Testing the 1.1485 sell signal overnight and again Wednesday morning was held both times, suggesting an intraday test of the rally’s 1.1600 target will print before a durable decline develops.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing under the 1286.00 pullback limit could be absorbed by closing the same session back above 1289.00. At least overlapping 1286.00 through the close would undermine the downside momentum, keeping alive the attraction up to 1313.50. But a second consecutive close under 1286.00 would instead trigger a deeper pullback first, although probing fresh highs would still be likely to fail.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Barely managing to close back at or above the 17.50 pullback limit Tuesday still needed to resolve Wednesday morning in rally mode to prove the pullback had ended. Instead, it extended lower. Now a close above 17.50 is required before signaling the pullback has ended.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Ranging choppily around Tuesday’s 164-10 high did not reject the trending that is targeting 165-06. But it also created a pattern whose bearish resolution is likely to begin by gapping down. So, avoiding a gap down keeps in-play 165-06.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s probe under the 43.85 sell signal was likelier to be rejected than to extend down. But gapping up to the 44.50 buy signal proved too optimistic to withstand the morning’s EIA report. Its reaction back down to Tuesday’s 43.25 lows isn’t any likelier to extend down while unfinished business above remains outstanding at a new high close. but it is as vulnerable to break lower first.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Rather than first dipping to fill the gap back down to Monday’s 2.03 close, Wednesday’s open gapped up to test 2.14 resistance. Like Tuesday’s gap up to 2.07, the balance of the session only ranged narrowly sideways. Filling the gap would help to clear the way for a durable rally, which would otherwise be signaled by closing above 2.22. Thursday’s EIA report is not being greeted from an optimal position of strength.