Bigger Picture
Saturday Review’s recording (for 4/30/16) …
Last week’s decline was really Thursday afternoon’s and Friday morning’s decline. The week previously had been all about either recovering from dips or testing resistance. Although relevant support — if not also critical — held Friday’s thorough testing, no recovery is yet signaled… So, what would qualify as that signal Monday morning, or even Sunday night? What is the alternative, and how far can either scenario extend? These and other questions are answered in this weekend’s Saturday Review, linked below.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
FCX, JOY, ERII, ALB, CB, GROW, POT, CACC, HOG, SBUX, CLF, ULTA, CHK, AAPL
04/30/2016 09:13:46 sm: I asked this previously, but feel like I need to ask again – Can the 2110 target be adequately satisfied with the test of the 2105 level? Is that close enough for the market to legitimately be in the process of resuming the decline?
04/30/2016 09:31:49 David B: Good Morning
04/30/2016 09:31:50 sm: good
04/30/2016 09:52:25 David B: could the low on friday be a warning shot across the bow?
04/30/2016 09:53:08 David B: as anything this week been distributive?
04/30/2016 09:54:36 Josey: I have never seen a W pattern on a intr day, but when I have on a longer term it launched a rally. Is it bullish short term?
04/30/2016 10:00:35 Mark Glezer: Has NDX been a leading indicator in this multi-session decline and ES maybe just joining in & trying to catch up?
04/30/2016 10:04:21 sm: Not testing 2110 would seem to be analaous to an intraday target that doesn’t get tested and probed because of weak-handed sentiment that prevents it. Contrarian view suggests that leaving that level will eventually attract price back to that level
04/30/2016 10:06:06 David B: yes that answers th question
04/30/2016 10:06:11 David B: the
04/30/2016 10:06:50 Josey: yes
04/30/2016 10:11:24 Mark Glezer: yes
04/30/2016 10:18:05 David B: FCX,JOY
04/30/2016 10:19:46 MK: wow
04/30/2016 10:19:56 MK: FCX totally fell off my radar
04/30/2016 10:21:46 MK: ALB
04/30/2016 10:21:48 MK: CB
04/30/2016 10:21:52 MK: GROW
04/30/2016 10:21:58 MK: POT
04/30/2016 10:22:03 MK: CACC
04/30/2016 10:22:05 MK: HOG
04/30/2016 10:22:07 MK: SBUX
04/30/2016 10:22:12 MK: ULTA
04/30/2016 10:29:58 MK: ALB has a big interest in Lithium
04/30/2016 10:30:02 MK: as in Batteries
04/30/2016 10:30:36 MK: ok i’ll pare off
04/30/2016 10:30:40 MK: no need to do more work
04/30/2016 10:30:42 MK: i get the gist
04/30/2016 10:34:13 MK: its a long
04/30/2016 10:34:36 MK: yeah i’m in from 112
04/30/2016 10:34:39 MK: so no thanks
04/30/2016 10:34:42 MK: i’ll take my profit
04/30/2016 10:41:23 MK: yeah i sold high 50s
04/30/2016 10:41:33 MK: covered a bunch friday morning
04/30/2016 10:41:50 MK: ok
04/30/2016 10:42:00 MK: will press on monday
04/30/2016 10:42:01 David B: CLF
04/30/2016 10:42:03 MK: if we are weak
04/30/2016 10:42:15 MK: I got DESTROYED
04/30/2016 10:42:18 MK: by starbucks
04/30/2016 10:42:37 MK: was sized wayyyy too big
04/30/2016 10:42:39 MK: in the high 50s
04/30/2016 10:42:52 MK: and that move above stopped me out of 50% of my position
04/30/2016 10:42:59 MK: i’m BEARISH
04/30/2016 10:43:21 MK: ok
04/30/2016 10:43:23 MK: sweet
04/30/2016 10:43:30 Josey: szym, xone
04/30/2016 10:44:48 David B: CHK
04/30/2016 10:45:55 MK: trying to leg into this short
04/30/2016 10:45:58 MK: on ulta
04/30/2016 10:46:05 MK: i’m short at 205
04/30/2016 10:46:08 MK: i know
04/30/2016 10:46:09 MK: you hate it
04/30/2016 10:51:22 MK: If you look at the S&P aand AAPL correlation
04/30/2016 10:51:32 MK: it has massively diverged in Q1
04/30/2016 10:51:36 MK: and will continue to do so
04/30/2016 10:52:37 David B: thanks
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday immediately exploited Thursday’s close above 1.1355 by gapping up to prior resistance at 1.1415 and trending up from there to probe prior highs up to 1.1475. Back under 1.1415 at any time would trigger a new downleg targeting fresh lows.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Trending higher overnight extended Thursday’s rally to sharply higher highs, probing 1286.00 resistance whose recovery through the close would target 1312.00.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Friday and trending higher intraday reinstates the rally’s momentum that is ultimately targeting 18.80. Having formed an Island, gapping down Monday back under 17.55 would create a detour back down first.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Friday was recovered into positive territory after Thursday had confirmed Wednesday’s breakout. Although at least an eventual higher close is now required — and an upleg triggered above 163-00 would target 165-00 — a detour can still fill the gap back down to 161-04 if not also briefly probe a fresh low under 161-.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Initially firming to test 46.75 was reversed intraday into negative territory, leaving outstanding at least one more eventual higher close before a reversal down would be credible from any higher than 43.10.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The overnight blip-down was retraced enough to open flat Friday, in a four-day setup that was unlikely to close lower. In fact, the session surged to attack 2.22 within a few cents, whose recovery would trigger a new upleg.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon May 2, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The econ calendar is often sleepy on Mondays, but not this week. A pre-open Fed speaker is followed by post-open reports with track records for influencing price action.
Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure
8:30 AM ET
*Dennis Lockhart Speaks
8:50 AM ET
*PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Except for closing above 1.1355, Thursday’s ranging around the 1.1345 bounce limit would have maintained the likelihood for filling the gaps back down to 1.1282 and 1.1249 before any durable rally would be credible. A second consecutive higher close would confirm a retest of the highs underway.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s post-close spike down to 1241.00 was retested overnight, and then recovered enough to gap up Thursday. Extending higher intraday filled the gap back to last week’s 1267.80 gap up above prior highs. Back under 1260.00 would signal the rally had ended, and under 1254.00 would reverse the trend back down.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s post-close dip was recovered overnight and Thursday continue firming intraday to within a nickel of filling the gap back to last week’s 17.64 high opening print.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Closing above the 162-14 buy signal Wednesday had initially extended higher overnight, but Thursday was mostly spent fluctuating narrowly around the buy signal. The gap back down to 161-04 can still be filled near-term.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s recovery to fresh highs firmed into Thursday’s open, testing 46.00. The sell signal cannot be raised higher than 43.85-43.90.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Thursday under 2.11 greeted the morning’s EIA report from a position of weakness. The follow-through was nominal, but a rally into the weekend is needed to avoid targeting fresh lows under 1.95.