Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s FOMC reaction probed above Tuesday’s test of 1.1345 resistance before reversing down more substantially, filling the nearest gap, and likely targeting fresh lows.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Wednesday to and through 1248.00 probed above 1251.00 intraday. A knee-jerk reaction to FOMC touched what had been the 1241.00 bounce limit. Back under 1241.00 would reinstate the decline targeting 1222.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Wednesday was retraced to fill the gap back down to Tuesday’s close. Bouncing again was retraced in reaction to the FOMC news. Any new rally effort would be credible for resuming the rally.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Despite being an appropriate area for a low, Wednesday’s gap up was the wrong tactic for launching a durable recovery. The FOMC reaction’s blip-up touched the 162-14 buy signal and held it, still needing to fill the gap back down to Tuesday’s 161-04 close.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Probing fresh highs overnight was reversed down on Wednesday’s morning’s EIA report, but only to fill the gap back to Tuesday’s close. The afternoon was recovered entirely and probed fresh highs. The sell signal has been raised to 43.90.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Holding Tuesday’s test of 2.14 “lower prior highs” is free to launch a recovery, but Wednesday’s open did not start it. There was no second consecutive lower close to confirm Tuesday’s breakout.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Tuesday wasn’t any more credible for avoiding a retest of Friday’s low close, but testing 1.1345 was needed before reacting back down intraday, and then only to attack Tuesday’s post-open lowss.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite having held the 1241.00 bounce limit Monday, gapping back down Tuesday to the 1234.50 sell signal was recovered to probe retest 1241.00. Breaking back under 1234.50 would still target a test of 1222.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s narrow ranging persisted into Tuesday, which isn’t bearish, but does suggest the rally targeting 18.80 might need a blip-down before suddenly snapping higher.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fresh lows Tuesday morning tested 161-00, which now allows a close above 162-12 to launch an upleg.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up Tuesday from triggering the 43.10 buy signal Monday and extending higher intraday to probe above 44.00 avoided a second consecutive lower close that would have confirmed the sell signal. But a gap was left outstanding at Monday’s close, undermining any rally effort.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down again Tuesday tested “lower prior highs” at 2.14. A second consecutive lower close Wednesday would require an eventual third lower close. So resuming the rally to 2.34-2.40 must be obvious by the afternoon — especially to greet Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength.