Bigger Picture
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday morning was only contained within Friday’s range, but it did duplicate Friday’s downtrending. A gap is no left outstanding back to Friday’s close, further suggesting that Monday’s bounce is only temporary.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Monday is not an appropriate way to end the last week’s plunge, let alone after stopping optimistically short of fulfilling unfinished business just below at 1222.00. Holding 1241.50 as resistance and reversing back under 1234.50 should resume the decline.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s firm open didn’t extend higher, which at least avoids confirming last week’s plunge, but still needs to restart the rally.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
An eventual third lower close had been put into play by Tuesday’s confirmed breakout, which could be fulfilled Monday after the open’s probe of fresh lows remained in negative territory through the noon hour.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Sunday night flirted with the 43.10 sell signal but recovered enough to open Monday flat. An intraday retest of overnight lows could still trigger the sell signal.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Fresh highs attacked 2.18 at Sunday’s open but reversed to open Monday flat-to-lower, trending down even deeper intraday to 2.03. Back above 2.08 would resume the rally, targeting 2.20-2.25.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Apr 26, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Have you noticed the daily econ calendars have been pretty thin? That’s done. Tuesday’s pre-open Durable Goods is both high-profile and has a track record for influencing price action. More so, any reaction it produces tends to be repeated by subsequent reports.
*Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
S&P Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
5-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Sunday night’s Globex link
A relatively dull weekend on the geopolitical and macroeconomic fronts. Does that mean nothing will interfere with extending Friday afternoon’s recovery and fulfilling its “unfinished business above”?
CLICK HERE to monitor overnight action in the chaRTroom.
Saturday Review’s recording (for 4/23/16) …
One of my favorite sessions ever. Of course, its focus was the market’s bigger picture: how it got here, why, where it’s going, and why.
That included a review the bullish WedEX signal which gave us last Monday’s morning-long buy signal. Then we jumped forward to Friday’s unfulfilled upside and how sellers proved themselves to be weak-handed. The current setup was compared to the midweek OPEC rumor’s weak-handed rally, as a guideline for Sunday and Monday’s resolution.
The conversation got a little thicker when we discussed correlations and decoupling among markets. But that was nothing compared to our deep discussion of templates — what they mean, and what they don’t. We dipped into some of my methodology’s aspects that I don’t discuss often, so don’t watch without a strong cup of coffee, or a big bottle of scotch.
No stock analyses were requested.
04/23/2016 09:24:09 If, Then… Market Timing: The charting application is being difficult this morning, please bear with me… Thank you
04/23/2016 09:35:12 David B: Good Morning
04/23/2016 09:35:13 sm: audio is good. no charts
04/23/2016 09:37:20 jp: gm
04/23/2016 09:38:26 sm: saw them for about 2 seconds
04/23/2016 09:38:44 sm: good to go
04/23/2016 10:08:03 David B: what closing high would then say we are no longer in a bear market?
04/23/2016 10:14:42 David B: so we need to start distribution before we call a top?
04/23/2016 10:15:02 David B: start to see distribution
04/23/2016 10:22:28 sm: You’re saying that the price action in March was ‘accumulative’? That seems to contradict with it being a ‘topping template’. Can you clarify?
04/23/2016 10:23:14 sm: That’s what it was called at the time
04/23/2016 10:24:31 sm: But now we’re calling the price action ‘accumultive’. Is there a way that we can recognize that in real time so that we’re no distracted by a ‘topping template’?
04/23/2016 10:25:36 sm: – –
04/23/2016 10:26:11 sm: It doesn’t help AFTER the fact to characterize the price action as ‘accumulative’
04/23/2016 10:29:05 sm: – –
04/23/2016 10:32:46 sm: Even though it’s accumulkation, can’t we tell that it’s weak-handed based on the timing windows?
04/23/2016 10:36:33 sm: — I agree that it was an important decision point, but the idea that ‘accumulation’ was taking place connotes to me that we might have known better that the outcome was going to be up, rather than seeing the ‘topping template’ be fulfilled.
04/23/2016 10:36:48 David B: when you say we need to gap up to gain traction what is considered a gap up. Is this a level above the high for the day?. I’m assuming the opposite for sellers below the days low?
04/23/2016 10:38:37 sm: ok, thanks for giving time to that discussion.
04/23/2016 10:39:26 Josey: If the currencies and metals are to trend down monday morning, wouldn’t it take the market with it?
04/23/2016 10:40:00 David B: yes
04/23/2016 10:40:54 David B: session high
04/23/2016 10:41:16 David B: ok thanks
04/23/2016 10:42:57 Josey: currency
04/23/2016 10:42:58 jp: si
04/23/2016 10:43:42 David B: even we get a large rally in oil is oil becoming decoupled with the market. what i’m saying we don’t need oil t get us out above the 2120. it seems like the dollar is the key in all for the next rally
04/23/2016 10:48:15 David B: we also have a fed meeting and 1Q GDP this week do you think the market will focus on this at all?
04/23/2016 10:56:02 Josey: Thank you!
04/23/2016 10:56:49 David B: thanks
04/23/2016 10:56:53 jp: ety
04/23/2016 10:56:54 sm: thx
Saturday Review Link – REPLACEMENT
Sorry, the Saturday Review links were mapped incorrectly and a correction this morning has changed the info I sent you overnight. Please use the following link. The start time will be delayed by several minutes…